41814 Buckskin Basin Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,621 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2024 6,390 sqft lot $160/sqft · at area comps Est $257k · at est. $1/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THE perfect home if you don't have the luxury to wait for construction of a home! The original owner here applied his career kitchen designing methology to make stunning upgrades to this home, which include the LVP flooring (Shaw Natural Pine!), kitchen counters, hardware, stainless steel appliances, fixtures, & so much more ~ the quality speaks for itself! Refrigerator, washer, & dryer to stay. Great open spaces in the common areas are perfect for entertaining. Generously sized primary suite includes a bedroom tucked away at the back of the home, a roomy bathroom with an over-sized shower and double vanities, & a walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms and secondary bathroom are on the opposite side of the home to promote seclusion for the primary suite occupant. Do NOT miss this spectacular covered back porch, which is 16x10 and boasts patio drapes for privacy, sun protection, & shade. Newer community in Magnolia with super close proximity to Magnolia West High School, and other campuses.

Key facts

• Kitchen counters
• Lvp flooring
• Covered back porch

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• KITCHEN COUNTERS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-522 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (35.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.

Recommended offer $167,661 (35.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.61%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,692
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: 1.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
810 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,609 (-1%)	1mo	$220,995	$137	92
833 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+1%)	2mo	$242,995	$149	92
692 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+1%)	9mo	$252,799	$155	81
701 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+1%)	10mo	$249,995	$153	79
232 Harlingen Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+1%)	0mo	$259,990	$159	75
627 Coyote Canyon Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,407 (-13%)	19mo	$269,000	$191	56
30102 Dunlevy St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+11%)	6mo	$349,990	$194	52
213 Harlingen Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,841 (+14%)	19mo	$299,990	$163	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $103,260
• Equity at exit: $234,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $321,140
• Equity at exit: $504,929

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$629 /mo · $7,551/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$1
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,660

Max offer price $167,661

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-375	-5% $-449	+0% $-522	+5% $-596	+10% $-669
Rent	-10% $-680	-5% $-601	+0% $-522	+5% $-443	+10% $-364
Rate	-1.0pp $-391	-0.5pp $-456	base $-522	+0.5pp $-589	+1.0pp $-658

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41523 Stampede Strem Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	24d	1	0.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1 · $12/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $259,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-03-21
    listed $259,900 Active 1016-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

    THE perfect home if you don't have the luxury to wait for construction of a home! The original owner here applied his career kitchen designing methology to make stunning upgrades to this home, which include the LVP flooring (Shaw Natural Pine!), kitchen counters, hardware, stainless steel appliances, fixtures, & so much more ~ the quality speaks for itself! Refrigerator, washer, & dryer to stay. Great open spaces in the common areas are perfect for entertaining. Generously sized primary suite includes a bedroom tucked away at the back of the home, a roomy bathroom with an over-sized shower and double vanities, & a walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms and secondary bathroom are on the opposite side of the home to promote seclusion for the primary suite occupant. Do NOT miss this spectacular covered back porch, which is 16x10 and boasts patio drapes for privacy, sun protection, & shade. Newer community in Magnolia with super close proximity to Magnolia West High School, and other campuses.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,551 · $629/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,551 · $629/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$7,551
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − HOA: −$12
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$10,830
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,599
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $259,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+203.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,551 · +792.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.