4500 E Bay Dr · Largo, FL 33764

$140,000

1 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,374 sqft · Condo public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1976

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful completely renovated condo. New air conditioning unit. First floor. Near bus routes. 15 minutes from Clearwater beaches.

Key facts

• Near bus routes
• First floor
• Completely renovated

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• NEW AIR CONDITIONING UNIT
• FIRST FLOOR
• NEAR BUS ROUTES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate -8.0% vs local median 4.2% in Largo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#82 in FL, #1,240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 121% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: -7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -50.96%
• DSCR: -1.27
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.38×
• Total profit: $-132,302
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -5.77×
• Total profit: $-265,361
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33764

• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA est. from 4 same-building comps: −$2,004
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-1,665

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,761

Max offer price —

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2505 E Bay Dr Lot 54 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	3480	$1,695	$0.49	24d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 131-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $140,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − HOA: −$24,048
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$22,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,301
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Largo

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #1240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Largo, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 106,311
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,311
• Household income: $67,256
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1118.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -350.08%
• Current HPI: 315.4133
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.24%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+69.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $140,000 FSBO.com
• 2007-01-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-19 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-19 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-15 Sold (MLS) $94,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-12 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records