3490 Warwick Ct · Austintown, OH 44406

$187,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,976 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1963 0.30 ac lot Est $247k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful oversized BiLevel on Corner Lot. Addit. 25x11 w/ dble. closets. Many uses-Master or 4th B. R. ,Computer/Children's Rec Room, Pool Room etc. Other Fam. Rm. L-Shaped 19x12 & open to 9x7 w/ walk- out Basement. Laundry Rm/9x12 finished w/ Blt-ins.

Key facts

• Vinyl sided home
• Large family room
• Extra bonus area

Tags

• VINYL SIDED HOME
• CUL-DE-SAC STREET
• GENEROUS DINING AREA
• OPEN VIEW TO LIVING ROOM
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• EXTRA BONUS AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 car); Driveway parking; Garage faces front; Paved surfaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public power
• Home design: Two-story home; Vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Above-grade finished living area reported
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Deck; Back yard; Front yard; Corner lot; Located on a cul-de-sac; City lot; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Built-in kitchen features
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Additional bedroom on lower level
• Flooring: Carpet in multiple rooms; Wood flooring in living areas; Slate at entry foyer; Other flooring in dining room and kitchen
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Full walk-out basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on lower level; Laundry tub and sink; Lower-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $188k).
• Recommended offer: $171k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.8% in Austintown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#322 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Austintown Local Schools (suburban): math 56% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #290 of 656 in OH (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $188k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,989 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.64%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3490 Warwick Ct	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,976 (0%)	1mo	$182,000	$92	92
4565 Plumbrook Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,976 (0%)	13mo	$219,000	$111	71
3429 Heritage Ct S	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,976 (0%)	15mo	$195,000	$99	68
3671 High Meadow Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5	2,100 (+6%)	9mo	$245,000	$117	67
4132 Burgett Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	2,000 (+1%)	10mo	$410,000	$205	66
4270 Mellinger Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,052 (+4%)	6mo	$270,000	$132	51
3658 Johnson Farm Dr	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,716 (-13%)	8mo	$159,900	$93	49
4566 Sheffield Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,896 (-4%)	14mo	$248,000	$131	49
3423 Tall Oaks Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,112 (+7%)	1mo	$252,000	$119	48
4188 Kirk Rd	0.52mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,833 (-7%)	14mo	$230,000	$125	47
2612 Frostwood Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-10%)	0mo	$235,000	$133	46
3375 Darbyshire Dr	0.71mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,716 (-13%)	4mo	$247,000	$144	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,100
• Equity at exit: $28,017

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $19,635
• Equity at exit: $16,246

Cash invested: $52,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44406

• Home prices YoY: -27.4%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$985
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,713/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,633

Max offer price $187,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,975
• Closing costs: $5,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4185 Adeer Dr Canfield, OH	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,900	$1.30	43d	1	0.50mi
2230 S Raccoon Rd Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0–1.5	1141	$1,135	$0.99	13d	1	0.91mi
2529 Bainbridge Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	2.0	1692	$1,500	$0.89	43d	1	0.98mi
2433 Bainbridge Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1640	$1,500	$0.91	21d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-22
   historical Contingent
2. 2026-03-31
   price $187,900
3. 2026-02-17
   listed $195,000 Active
4. 2003-06-19
   historical
5. 2003-02-20
   soldstatus $89,500 261-char remark

   Show marketing remark (261 chars)

   Wonderful oversized BiLevel on Corner Lot. Addit. 25x11 w/ dble. closets. Many uses-Master or 4th B. R. ,Computer/Children's Rec Room, Pool Room etc. Other Fam. Rm. L-Shaped 19x12 & open to 9x7 w/ walk- out Basement. Laundry Rm/9x12 finished w/ Blt-ins.

6. 2003-02-20
   soldstatus $89,500

   Show marketing remark (261 chars)

   Wonderful oversized BiLevel on Corner Lot. Addit. 25x11 w/ dble. closets. Many uses-Master or 4th B. R. ,Computer/Children's Rec Room, Pool Room etc. Other Fam. Rm. L-Shaped 19x12 & open to 9x7 w/ walk- out Basement. Laundry Rm/9x12 finished w/ Blt-ins.

7. 2002-10-20
   listed $95,000

   Show marketing remark (261 chars)

   Wonderful oversized BiLevel on Corner Lot. Addit. 25x11 w/ dble. closets. Many uses-Master or 4th B. R. ,Computer/Children's Rec Room, Pool Room etc. Other Fam. Rm. L-Shaped 19x12 & open to 9x7 w/ walk- out Basement. Laundry Rm/9x12 finished w/ Blt-ins.

8. 2002-10-20
   listed $95,000 261-char remark

   Show marketing remark (261 chars)

   Wonderful oversized BiLevel on Corner Lot. Addit. 25x11 w/ dble. closets. Many uses-Master or 4th B. R. ,Computer/Children's Rec Room, Pool Room etc. Other Fam. Rm. L-Shaped 19x12 & open to 9x7 w/ walk- out Basement. Laundry Rm/9x12 finished w/ Blt-ins.

9. 2002-09-18
   historical
10. 2002-05-17
    listed $97,900
11. 1995-10-13
    soldstatus $74,000
12. 1995-05-04
    listed $77,550

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,713 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,822 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$109/yr (+$9/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,525
• − Property taxes: −$2,713
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,974
• − Management: −$1,974
• − Depreciation: −$5,466
• Taxable income: $1,084
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$260
• After-tax cash flow: $3,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austintown Local Schools
• NCES district ID: 3904829
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,129
• Composite: 50.99/100
• National rank: #1778
• State rank: #290 of 656 in OH

Livability — Austintown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #322
• US rank: #5290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austintown, OH
• County: Mahoning · 224,175 people
• City population: 27,740
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 22,297
• Household income: $99,542
• Rent vs Own: 11.1% rent · 88.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 8.2

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 1% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.88%
• Current HPI: 200.9335
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+142.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $187,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-02-17 Listed $195,000 MLSNOW
• 2003-06-19 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2003-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records
• 2003-02-20 Sold (MLS) $89,500 MLSNOW
• 2002-10-20 Listed $95,000 MLSNOW
• 2002-10-20 Listed $95,000 MLSNOW
• 2002-09-18 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2002-05-17 Listed $97,900 MLSNOW
• 1995-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-04 Listed $77,550 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,713 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.