2150 Haywaters Rd · Cutchogue, NY 11935

$1,580,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,062 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 2003 0.69 ac lot Est $1681k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located in the prestigious Nassau Point community, this three-bedroom, three-bath first-time-on-the-market home, set on just shy of three-quarters of an acre, has been meticulously curated and lovingly maintained. The first floor features a spacious primary bedroom suite, along with an additional bedroom and full bath - perfect for guests or single-level living. Upstairs, you’ll find a private third bedroom and bonus space, offering separation and versatility. Inside, soaring cathedral ceilings elevate the dramatic family room, anchored by an impressive oversized fireplace that serves as a stunning focal point and natural gathering space which meanders into the formal dining room and

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Brazilian hardwood
• Lush garden

Tags

• NASSAU POINT COMMUNITY
• PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITE
• OVERSIZED FIREPLACE
• COVERED DECK
• BRAZILIAN HARDWOOD
• LUSH GARDEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Private driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Water connected; See remarks for additional utility details
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area listed from plans
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Patio; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Oil heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Beamed ceilings; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Central vacuum; Chandelier; Chef's kitchen; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Granite counters; High ceilings; His and hers closets; Natural woodwork; Open floorplan; Primary bathroom; Master bedroom on main level; Soaking tub; Sound system; Stone counters; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.58M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($63k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.58M).
• Recommended offer: $1.53M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 7.3% in Cutchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $169k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $158k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $442k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$272k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.53M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $1.58M implies a 1480% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,532,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.34%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,680,530
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2090 Wunneweta Rd	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,162 (+5%)	14mo	$999,999	$463	65
590 Haywaters Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,239 (+9%)	6mo	$1,825,000	$815	49
4000 Wunneweta Rd	0.38mi	3/4.0	2,300 (+12%)	22mo	$2,400,000	$1,043	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $1,196,975
• Equity at exit: $1,423,389

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.37×
• Total profit: $3,259,605
• Equity at exit: $3,069,592

Cash invested: $442,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11935

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $19,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,286
• Tax from tax record: −$1,092 /mo · $13,098/yr
• Insurance: −$658
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,073
• Net cashflow: $5,287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,703

Max offer price $1,580,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,181	-5% $5,734	+0% $5,287	+5% $4,840	+10% $4,392
Rent	-10% $3,755	-5% $4,521	+0% $5,287	+5% $6,053	+10% $6,819
Rate	-1.0pp $6,082	-0.5pp $5,689	base $5,287	+0.5pp $4,877	+1.0pp $4,461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $395,000
• Closing costs: $47,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1600 Pine Tree Rd Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2012	$10,000	$4.97	44d	1	1.05mi
250 Pine Tree Ct Cutchogue, NY	4.0	3.5	2800	$32,500	$11.61	44d	1	1.16mi
25 Moose Trl Cutchogue, NY	4.0	2.0	2600	$20,000	$7.69	44d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   price $1,580,000
3. 2026-02-26
   listed $1,649,000 Active
4. 1999-10-15
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,098 · $1,092/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,900 · $1,658/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,802/yr (+$567/mo · 51.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $232,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$88,505
• − Property taxes: −$13,098
• − Insurance: −$7,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,619
• − Management: −$18,619
• − Depreciation: −$45,964
• Taxable income: $40,038
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,609
• After-tax cash flow: $53,832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cutchogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #16353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cutchogue, NY
• City population: 2,946
• Population (ZIP): 2,946

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.82%
• Current HPI: 467.3019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1480.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $1,580,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $1,649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,098 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.