26806 Scarlet Willow Dr · Houston, TX 77493

$249,640

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Land · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 $142/sqft · 16% below area Est $297k · 16% under $183/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $245,895 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.07%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,984
• List price: $249,640
• Delta: -15.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-14,840
• Equity at exit: $37,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-692
• Equity at exit: $21,584

Cash invested: $69,899 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,743 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,309
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $509/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,074

Max offer price $249,640

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $670	-5% $599	+0% $529	+5% $173	+10% $86
Rent	-10% $312	-5% $420	+0% $529	+5% $637	+10% $745
Rate	-1.0pp $654	-0.5pp $592	base $529	+0.5pp $464	+1.0pp $398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,410
• Closing costs: $7,489
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	14d	1	0.43mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	45d	1	0.60mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	45d	1	0.64mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	18d	1	0.69mi
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	45d	1	0.69mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	0d	1	0.74mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	45d	1	0.76mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.77mi
6758 Sunset Velvet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,350	$1.49	45d	1	0.83mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	22d	1	0.83mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	0.95mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	25d	1	1.02mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	14d	1	1.07mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	25d	1	1.08mi
26802 Cenzontle Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	45d	1	1.08mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	25d	1	1.09mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	23d	1	1.09mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	16d	1	1.14mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	45d	1	1.16mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	5d	1	1.17mi
7402 Clover Chase Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	45d	1	1.19mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	45d	1	1.20mi
7410 Hillside Arbor Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2289	$2,400	$1.05	45d	1	1.31mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	25d	1	1.44mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-05-14
   price $249,640 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-05-11
   price $254,240 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-05-07
   price $264,990 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-05-04
   price $270,940 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-04-30
   price $275,490 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

7. 2026-04-20
   listed $279,990 Active 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $509 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,568 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,060/yr (+$338/mo · 798.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,984
• − Property taxes: −$509
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,633
• − Management: −$2,633
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$7,262
• Taxable income: $2,452
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$589
• After-tax cash flow: $5,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $249,640 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $254,240 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $264,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $270,940 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $275,490 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $279,990 HARMLS