25521 Lincoln Ave · Valle Vista, CA 92544

$23,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1973 ↓ 54% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful and well maintained Mobil Home Community Manor 55+Scenic This nice , Neat and clean move in Ready offers at lowest price comparable in the community if you and your family are looking for comfort , and convenience this home offers all you need, 2 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, wall mounted A/C, Kitchen open floor/Dinning room and large Living room to enjoy family moments, new laminate floor, fresh interior painting and all new wood fence makinf very private this home. Pueblo Sereno Adult Park offer Clubhouse, swimming Pool and Bocce Ball court also pet friendly too, do not missing this opportunity Call today.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Bonus room
• Sunroom

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• SUNROOM
• FENCED YARD
• NEW TURF
• 3 SHEDS
• 3 PARKING SPACES

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $23,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$109,120) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $23k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $23k).
• Cap rate 73.4% vs local median 4.3% in Valle Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#739 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 323 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $159 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $690 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $23,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 73.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 239.72%
• DSCR: 11.67
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $109,120
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44725 State Highway 74 #103	0.34mi	2/2.0	868 (-1%)	4mo	$73,000	$84	79
44725 State Highway 74 #177	0.34mi	2/2.0	960 (+9%)	7mo	$58,000	$60	63
25863 4th St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	840 (-4%)	10mo	$304,750	$363	56
44725 E Florida Ave #140	0.69mi	2/2.0	960 (+9%)	14mo	$119,000	$124	41
25147 Wanda Ln	0.67mi	2/1.0	810 (-8%)	16mo	$215,000	$265	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.69×
• Total profit: $81,726
• Equity at exit: $3,429

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 30.76×
• Total profit: $191,669
• Equity at exit: $1,989

Cash invested: $6,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92544

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$121
• Tax from tax record: −$4 /mo · $52/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $1,286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $170

Max offer price $23,000

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,750
• Closing costs: $690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44075 B St Hemet, CA	3.0	1.0	680	$1,595	$2.35	20d	1	0.34mi
44085 Palm Ave Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,850	$2.31	4d	1	0.36mi
44099 D St Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1040	$2,195	$2.11	18d	1	0.43mi
43816 C St Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,250	$2.16	24d	1	0.63mi
43611 Florida Ave Unit 10 Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$1,550	$1.82	43d	1	0.92mi
43601 California 74 Unit 17 Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	840	$1,400	$1.67	23d	1	0.99mi
45371 Cardiff St Hemet, CA	2.0	1.0	624	$1,950	$3.12	43d	1	1.04mi
43601 E Florida Ave #98 Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	840	$1,400	$1.67	24d	1	1.06mi
43601 E Florida Ave Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	43d	1	1.06mi
43601 E Florida Ave Unit 43 Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	43d	1	1.06mi
43601 E Florida Ave #98 Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,400	$1.75	43d	1	1.06mi
43601 E Florida Ave Unit 43 Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$1,450	$1.51	23d	1	1.06mi
26097 Doverwood Pl Hemet, CA	2.0	1.0	1019	$1,849	$1.81	43d	1	1.14mi
25564 Sharp Dr Unit F Hemet, CA	1.0	1.0	832	$1,475	$1.77	43d	1	1.21mi
26123 Anawood Pl Hemet, CA	2.0	1.0	991	$1,680	$1.70	43d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $23,000 Active
2. 2025-06-17
   soldstatus $50,000 Closed Sale 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Beautiful and well maintained Mobil Home Community Manor 55+Scenic This nice , Neat and clean move in Ready offers at lowest price comparable in the community if you and your family are looking for comfort , and convenience this home offers all you need, 2 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, wall mounted A/C, Kitchen open floor/Dinning room and large Living room to enjoy family moments, new laminate floor, fresh interior painting and all new wood fence makinf very private this home. Pueblo Sereno Adult Park offer Clubhouse, swimming Pool and Bocce Ball court also pet friendly too, do not missing this opportunity Call today.

3. 2025-05-25
   status Pending Sale 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Beautiful and well maintained Mobil Home Community Manor 55+Scenic This nice , Neat and clean move in Ready offers at lowest price comparable in the community if you and your family are looking for comfort , and convenience this home offers all you need, 2 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, wall mounted A/C, Kitchen open floor/Dinning room and large Living room to enjoy family moments, new laminate floor, fresh interior painting and all new wood fence makinf very private this home. Pueblo Sereno Adult Park offer Clubhouse, swimming Pool and Bocce Ball court also pet friendly too, do not missing this opportunity Call today.

4. 2025-04-19
   listed $50,000 Active 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Beautiful and well maintained Mobil Home Community Manor 55+Scenic This nice , Neat and clean move in Ready offers at lowest price comparable in the community if you and your family are looking for comfort , and convenience this home offers all you need, 2 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, wall mounted A/C, Kitchen open floor/Dinning room and large Living room to enjoy family moments, new laminate floor, fresh interior painting and all new wood fence makinf very private this home. Pueblo Sereno Adult Park offer Clubhouse, swimming Pool and Bocce Ball court also pet friendly too, do not missing this opportunity Call today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $52 · $4/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $175 · $15/mo
• Expected delta: +$123/yr (+$10/mo · 235.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,288
• − Property taxes: −$52
• − Insurance: −$115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$669
• Taxable income: $16,007
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,842
• After-tax cash flow: $11,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valle Vista

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #739
• US rank: #21678

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living D- Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valle Vista, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 51,751
• Household income: $73,596
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1518.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 40% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.06%
• Current HPI: 391.972
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.90%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-54.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $23,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-06-17 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-25 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-04-19 Listed $50,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $52 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.