8462 Village Green Dr · Cross Plains, TN 37049

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1961 1.03 ac lot Est $183k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Great home in great shape, sitting on little over an acre, close to interstate 65, 4 bedrooms, 3 full bath, Spacious living room and Kitchen, Separate laundry area, detached garage and out building. FOR COMP ONLY

Key facts

• 1.03 acre lot
• 6 parking spots
• Built 1961

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $629 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 1.8% in Cross Plains — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#197 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Robertson County (rural): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #82 of 139 in TN (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Robertson Elementary (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #461 of 952 statewide, top 49%, 536 students, 0% FRL); East Robertson High School (math 22% / reading 30%, grade F, #117 of 332 statewide, top 37%, 690 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 42% district-wide (42 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 983 units permitted in Robertson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Robertson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $165k implies a 560% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.33%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,784
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8462 Village Green Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,536 (0%)	1mo	$150,000	$98	99
8416 Village Green Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	5mo	$160,000	$119	60
8447 Highway 25 E	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (+6%)	20mo	$275,000	$170	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $129,822
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.59×
• Total profit: $350,662
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37049

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $349/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $629

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $722	-5% $675	+0% $629	+5% $582	+10% $337
Rent	-10% $469	-5% $549	+0% $629	+5% $708	+10% $788
Rate	-1.0pp $712	-0.5pp $671	base $629	+0.5pp $586	+1.0pp $542

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-26
   listed $165,000
2. 2026-04-26
   historical
3. 1996-07-29
   soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $349 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,172 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$822/yr (+$69/mo · 235.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$349
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $5,093
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,222
• After-tax cash flow: $6,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Robertson County
• NCES district ID: 4703600
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,503
• Composite: 21.55/100
• National rank: #8313
• State rank: #82 of 139 in TN

Livability — Cross Plains

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #15503

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cross Plains, TN
• Population (ZIP): 4,025

Population outlook (Robertson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 72,786 people
• By 2030: 74,478 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 76,948 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 77,618 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 77,545 · +6.5%
• By 2100: 72,836 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Robertson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.9) · D 24.0% · R 74.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -31.1pp · 2024: -50.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.9 2020: R+47.0 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+35.6 2008: R+31.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.61%
• Current HPI: 371.9992
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+560.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Listed $165,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $349 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.