37812 Valencia Ave · Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1982 3,456 sqft lot Est $84k · 24% over $129/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out the new price! Welcome to Spanish Trails Senior Village, a sought-after 55+ community where pride of ownership truly shines. This lovingly maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home has been cared for by the same family for many years and is now ready to welcome its next chapter. Enjoy peace of mind with key updates, including double-pane windows for energy efficiency, a durable metal roof, low-maintenance vinyl siding, AC system is 2018, and new hot water tank in 2025. Step inside to a comfortable, functional layout designed for easy Florida living. The bright Florida room, located at the front of the home and accessed through sliding doors from the living room, offers the pe

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Walk-in closet
• Florida room

Tags

• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• METAL ROOF
• LOW-MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING
• FLORIDA ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE EN SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home is furnished; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA monthly fee of $129 (association: Margaret Thomas); Association amenities include clubhouse, gated entry, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, spa/hot tub; Association fee includes common area taxes, pool, private road, recreational facilities and trash; Buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs), max pet weight 25 lbs; Clubhouse, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces north; Entry on one level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof with roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered enclosed front porch; Patio/porch with sliding doors; Rain gutters; Storage and shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.7% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.20%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $84,456
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37843 Barcelona Ave	0.07mi	2/2.0	840 (+7%)	3mo	$99,000	$118	82
7045 EL Dewitt St	0.08mi	2/2.0	732 (-6%)	12mo	$55,000	$75	76
37826 Daughtery Rd	0.04mi	2/2.0	720 (-8%)	11mo	$126,500	$176	76
7133 EL Matador St	0.16mi	2/2.0	864 (+10%)	11mo	$79,000	$91	66
7117 EL Rancho Way #367	0.18mi	2/2.0	896 (+15%)	4mo	$118,000	$132	64
37512 Attica Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0	684 (-12%)	3mo	$74,000	$108	58
38533 Ethel Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	720 (-8%)	1mo	$69,900	$97	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,309
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $15,573
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,382/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$129
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,061

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	5d	1	0.01mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	24d	1	0.40mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	24d	1	0.65mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	24d	1	0.69mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	24d	1	0.69mi
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,964	$1.82	1d	34	0.75mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	0.79mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,732	$2.02	1d	142	0.88mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	24d	1	1.06mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	5d	1	1.15mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	24d	1	1.22mi
38010 14th Ave Apt 3 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	537	$1,195	$2.23	24d	1	1.27mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	24d	1	1.27mi
5611 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	16d	1	1.39mi
39132 County Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	1.41mi
39132 County Road 54 #2184 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	1.42mi
8129 Cass Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,100	$2.04	24d	1	1.49mi
38939 North Ave Unit 2 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,300	$1.49	18d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $129 · $1,548/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $105,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-02-10
    listed $110,000 Active
15. 2025-07-19
    status Pending
16. 2025-07-19
    historical
17. 2025-06-18
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,382
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − HOA: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $3,061
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$735
• After-tax cash flow: $3,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,382 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.