Gustine Plan · Grangerland, TX 77302

$294,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,536 sqft · SingleFamily · 473 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Gustine plan was made for those who need flexibility. The two-story foyer impresses as it flows seamlessly into the open-concept kitchen with an adjacent café and expansive gathering room. A first-floor flex room can be used as a private study, home gym, or extra play space. Enjoy privacy in the first-floor Owner's Suite with an oversized walk-in closet. 3 generous bedrooms plus a loft complete this home.

Key facts

• Two-story foyer
• Open-concept kitchen
• Generous bedrooms

Tags

• TWO-STORY FOYER
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• FIRST-FLOOR FLEX ROOM
• FIRST-FLOOR OWNER'S SUITE
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• GENEROUS BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $294,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,009.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($352/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 473 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $259,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 473 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,009
• List price: $294,990
• Delta: -0.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16156 Sepia Manor St	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-12%)	2mo	$289,250	$130	78
15026 English Rose Rd	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-12%)	2mo	$305,440	$138	77
16177 Sepia Manor St	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-12%)	2mo	$294,410	$133	77
14542 Clementine Hall Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,721 (+7%)	2mo	$375,000	$138	64
16022 Tangled Vine Ln	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,360 (-7%)	0mo	$345,000	$146	61
14574 Clementine Hall Dr	0.56mi	4/3.5	2,392 (-6%)	4mo	$358,330	$150	57
16147 Sapphire Crest Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,648 (+4%)	2mo	$400,000	$151	56
14601 Clementine Hall Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,392 (-6%)	6mo	$349,990	$146	53
14948 Scarlet Branch Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,350 (-7%)	6mo	$350,000	$149	50
14621 Clementine Hall Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,318 (-9%)	7mo	$339,990	$147	49
17114 Mystic River Ln	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,267 (-11%)	3mo	$309,000	$136	48
16018 Tangled Vine Ln	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,898 (+14%)	2mo	$399,891	$138	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-45,420
• Equity at exit: $44,285

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-33,688
• Equity at exit: $25,680

Cash invested: $83,163 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,455/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,598

Max offer price $297,009

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $235	-5% $132	+0% $29	+5% $-73	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-179	-5% $-75	+0% $29	+5% $133	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $105	base $29	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,252
• Closing costs: $8,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	45d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,990 Active 473 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,990 Active 470 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,990 Active 469 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,990 Active 468 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,990 Active 467 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,990 Active 465 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,990 Active 461 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,990 Active 460 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,990 Active 459 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $294,990 Active 456 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,990 Active 455 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,990 Active 454 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,990 Active 453 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,990 Active 452 DOM
15. 2025-03-06
    listed $294,990 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    The Gustine plan was made for those who need flexibility. The two-story foyer impresses as it flows seamlessly into the open-concept kitchen with an adjacent café and expansive gathering room. A first-floor flex room can be used as a private study, home gym, or extra play space. Enjoy privacy in the first-floor Owner's Suite with an oversized walk-in closet. 3 generous bedrooms plus a loft complete this home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,637
• − Property taxes: −$4,455
• − Insurance: −$1,485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,530
• − Management: −$2,530
• − Depreciation: −$8,640
• Taxable loss: −$4,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,117
• After-tax cash flow: $1,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It's ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Add smart home features — Improves home's marketability and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves home's marketability and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-03-06 Listed $294,990 Zillow