954 E State Highway 312 · Dell, AR 72315

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1987 1.03 ac lot $62/sqft · 25% below area Est $180k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

All brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offering 2,176 square feet and packed with potential. The spacious floor plan makes this property an excellent opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to create instant equity. Generous living areas, a functional kitchen layout, and comfortable bedrooms provide a strong foundation for updates and customization. The property also features a great size shop, adding valuable space for storage, hobbies, or workspace. With some TLC, this home could truly shine. Ideal for a renovation project or addition to a rental portfolio. Priced to sell, this is an opportunity you do not want to miss.

Key facts

• Great size shop
• 1.03 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GREAT SIZE SHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#278 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Gosnell School District (town): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #42 of 238 in AR (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Mississippi County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mississippi County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.50%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,000
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -25.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,874
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $17,529
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72315

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,388 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $779/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-01-28
    listed $135,000 Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    All brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offering 2,176 square feet and packed with potential. The spacious floor plan makes this property an excellent opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to create instant equity. Generous living areas, a functional kitchen layout, and comfortable bedrooms provide a strong foundation for updates and customization. The property also features a great size shop, adding valuable space for storage, hobbies, or workspace. With some TLC, this home could truly shine. Ideal for a renovation project or addition to a rental portfolio. Priced to sell, this is an opportunity you do not want to miss.

18. 2020-05-21
    soldstatus $135,000 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Just off of Hwy 18 (going toward Dell) on Highway 312 is this nice country home. Setting on about an acre it has all the family amenities. There is a huge open great room with a big fully equipped cooks kitchen and eating bar, a big cozy fireplace seating area and a dining area for big family gatherings or parties. This huge space is why the term GREAT ROOM was invented. Out side from the deck is the summer house, all screened and perfect for hot weather fun. Next is the wonderful big shop. .. concrete floored, wired and with big doors on either end, this is a mans perfect get away. There is also a big 2 car garage attached to the home. There are 3 large bedrooms, lots of closet space and 2 baths. It is easy to see any time and is in the Gosnell School District.

19. 2020-03-29
    listed $149,000 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Just off of Hwy 18 (going toward Dell) on Highway 312 is this nice country home. Setting on about an acre it has all the family amenities. There is a huge open great room with a big fully equipped cooks kitchen and eating bar, a big cozy fireplace seating area and a dining area for big family gatherings or parties. This huge space is why the term GREAT ROOM was invented. Out side from the deck is the summer house, all screened and perfect for hot weather fun. Next is the wonderful big shop. .. concrete floored, wired and with big doors on either end, this is a mans perfect get away. There is also a big 2 car garage attached to the home. There are 3 large bedrooms, lots of closet space and 2 baths. It is easy to see any time and is in the Gosnell School District.

20. 2014-01-23
    soldstatus $86,000
21. 2012-01-13
    soldstatus $128,000
22. 2007-10-26
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $864 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$85/yr (+$7/mo · 10.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$779
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,333
• − Management: −$1,333
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,050
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$252
• After-tax cash flow: $2,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gosnell School District
• NCES district ID: 0500029
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,829
• Composite: 37.15/100
• National rank: #4484
• State rank: #42 of 238 in AR

Livability — Dell

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #278
• US rank: #19625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 161
• Population (ZIP): 20,100

Population outlook (Mississippi County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,959 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 31,526 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 27,058 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 17,847 · -54.2%
• By 2100: 11,024 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mississippi

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.4% · R 65.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.4pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+22.2 2016: R+10.5 2012: R+1.1 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.32%
• Current HPI: 175.5603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+8.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Listed $135,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2020-05-21 Sold (MLS) $135,000 CARMLS
• 2020-03-29 Listed $149,000 CARMLS
• 2014-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2012-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $779 · -11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.