709 N 5th St · Jarrell, TX 76537

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1996 0.48 ac lot $149/sqft · 30% below area Est $286k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Subject to Court Approval. Developer opportunity in Jarrell with convenient access to IH-35. Situated on approximately 0.48 acres, this property offers strong potential for redevelopment or a new construction build. The existing 3-bedroom, 2-bath home provides flexibility for interim use, rental income, or removal. Oversized lot in a growing corridor with continued residential expansion. Ideal for builders, investors, or buyers looking to build their home their way. Value is in the land.

Key facts

• 0.48 acres
• Gated area
• Old town jarrell

Tags

• 0.48 ACRES
• OLD TOWN JARRELL
• GATED AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.7% in Jarrell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,329 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.72%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,316
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -30.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,308 (-3%)	1mo	$249,900	$191	59
207 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,308 (-3%)	4mo	$242,900	$186	58
132 Desert Hare Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,308 (-3%)	3mo	$245,900	$188	58
317 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,308 (-3%)	3mo	$245,900	$188	57
208 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,308 (-3%)	5mo	$242,900	$186	56
313 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,413 (+5%)	1mo	$259,900	$184	55
211 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,413 (+5%)	3mo	$255,900	$181	53
101 Desert Hare Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,508 (+12%)	1mo	$264,900	$176	45
112 Desert Hare Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,508 (+12%)	3mo	$262,900	$174	42
104 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.68mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,186 (-12%)	2mo	$235,900	$199	40
212 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,508 (+12%)	6mo	$262,900	$174	39
116 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.70mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,186 (-12%)	3mo	$235,900	$199	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,645
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-35,942
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 761
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,803 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,988/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,643

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
451 Marty Allen Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	12d	1	0.47mi
704 Commander Abbott Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1625	$1,550	$0.95	43d	1	0.50mi
604 Marty Allen Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,575	$1.21	12d	1	0.51mi
520 Locksley Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,850	$1.03	17d	1	0.55mi
364 Crescent Park Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,895	$1.06	4d	1	0.55mi
116 Somerdale Pass Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,645	$0.92	21d	1	0.57mi
344 Marty Allen Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,595	$1.17	12d	1	0.57mi
100 Stratton Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1438	$1,630	$1.13	23d	1	0.58mi
132 Somerdale Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1438	$1,630	$1.13	2d	1	0.59mi
583 Commander Abbott Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,595	$1.42	43d	1	0.60mi
309 Marty Allen Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1286	$1,545	$1.20	12d	1	0.61mi
117 Stratton Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1436	$1,630	$1.14	17d	1	0.63mi
152 Scarborough Bnd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,545	$1.15	43d	1	0.63mi
220 Crescent Park Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1438	$1,630	$1.13	4d	1	0.63mi
225 Wincanton Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,645	$0.92	23d	1	0.63mi
132 Stratton Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1438	$1,630	$1.13	17d	1	0.63mi
509 Scarborough Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,895	$1.24	12d	1	0.65mi
212 Marty Allen Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	12d	1	0.65mi
108 Allington Cir Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,750	$0.98	1d	1	0.68mi
329 Sunnymeade Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,595	$1.05	17d	1	0.68mi
101 Fairfax Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,850	$1.03	12d	1	0.69mi
341 Sunnymeade Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,595	$1.05	12d	1	0.71mi
217 Riverdale Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,645	$0.92	43d	1	0.72mi
309 Riverdale Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,650	$1.07	12d	1	0.73mi
313 Riverdale Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,500	$1.05	17d	1	0.73mi
136 Maywood Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	1d	1	0.73mi
405 Riverdale Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,550	$1.09	23d	1	0.75mi
128 Desert Hare Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1413	$1,940	$1.37	16d	1	0.75mi
101 W Luna Blue Ln Jarrell, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1906	$2,795	$1.47	1d	1	0.77mi
313 Riverdale Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,500	$1.05	23d	1	0.77mi
617 Riverdale Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,650	$0.92	14d	1	0.78mi
1024 Riverdale Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,550	$1.01	1d	1	0.79mi
1005 Riverdale Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1436	$1,675	$1.17	17d	1	0.80mi
604 Double Vision Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$1,795	$1.09	13d	1	0.80mi
604 Double Vision Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$1,795	$1.09	19d	1	0.80mi
1017 Riverdale Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,570	$1.03	14d	1	0.81mi
100 Bailey Kay Ct Unit B Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,600	$1.05	43d	1	0.82mi
109 Everett Ct Unit B Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,700	$1.11	4d	1	0.87mi
121 Maybelline Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$1,800	$1.09	12d	1	0.87mi
100 Everett Ct Unit B Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,600	$1.05	43d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-04-22
   price $200,000 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Subject to Court Approval. Developer opportunity in Jarrell with convenient access to IH-35. Situated on approximately 0.48 acres, this property offers strong potential for redevelopment or a new construction build. The existing 3-bedroom, 2-bath home provides flexibility for interim use, rental income, or removal. Oversized lot in a growing corridor with continued residential expansion. Ideal for builders, investors, or buyers looking to build their home their way. Value is in the land.

3. 2026-03-14
   price $220,000 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Subject to Court Approval. Developer opportunity in Jarrell with convenient access to IH-35. Situated on approximately 0.48 acres, this property offers strong potential for redevelopment or a new construction build. The existing 3-bedroom, 2-bath home provides flexibility for interim use, rental income, or removal. Oversized lot in a growing corridor with continued residential expansion. Ideal for builders, investors, or buyers looking to build their home their way. Value is in the land.

4. 2026-02-06
   listed $250,000 Active 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Subject to Court Approval. Developer opportunity in Jarrell with convenient access to IH-35. Situated on approximately 0.48 acres, this property offers strong potential for redevelopment or a new construction build. The existing 3-bedroom, 2-bath home provides flexibility for interim use, rental income, or removal. Oversized lot in a growing corridor with continued residential expansion. Ideal for builders, investors, or buyers looking to build their home their way. Value is in the land.

5. 2018-01-31
   soldstatus
6. 2018-01-30
   soldstatus Sold 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   Mobile home on . 48 Acres. Grandfathered residential zoned Commercial. A 1/2 block from downtown Jarrell and across the street from the school.

7. 2018-01-18
   status Pending - Taking Backups 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   Mobile home on . 48 Acres. Grandfathered residential zoned Commercial. A 1/2 block from downtown Jarrell and across the street from the school.

8. 2017-12-31
   price $96,000 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   Mobile home on . 48 Acres. Grandfathered residential zoned Commercial. A 1/2 block from downtown Jarrell and across the street from the school.

9. 2017-11-28
   price $108,000 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   Mobile home on . 48 Acres. Grandfathered residential zoned Commercial. A 1/2 block from downtown Jarrell and across the street from the school.

10. 2017-11-12
    listed $110,000 Active 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Mobile home on . 48 Acres. Grandfathered residential zoned Commercial. A 1/2 block from downtown Jarrell and across the street from the school.

11. 2017-11-10
    historical $110,000 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Mobile home on . 48 Acres. Grandfathered residential zoned Commercial. A 1/2 block from downtown Jarrell and across the street from the school.

12. 2017-11-10
    listed $96,000

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Mobile home on . 48 Acres. Grandfathered residential zoned Commercial. A 1/2 block from downtown Jarrell and across the street from the school.

13. 2003-03-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,988 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,672/yr (+$139/mo · 84.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,988
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,731
• − Management: −$1,731
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$440
• After-tax cash flow: $1,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jarrell, TX
• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+108.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $200,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $220,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2018-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-01-30 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2018-01-18 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2017-12-31 Price Changed $96,000 Unlock MLS
• 2017-11-28 Price Changed $108,000 Unlock MLS
• 2017-11-12 Listed $110,000 Unlock MLS
• 2017-11-10 Coming Soon $110,000 Unlock MLS
• 2017-11-10 Listed $96,000 CTXMLS
• 2003-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,988 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.