4192 Hummock Pl · Haines City, FL 33844

$259,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · Townhouse · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $151/sqft · at area comps Est $259k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Cartagena is a beautifully designed two-story townhome that blends modern living with comfort. This spacious residence features three well-appointed bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, providing ample room for families or guests. The first floor is centered around an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining room, and living room, perfect for entertaining or cozy nights in. Upstairs, a versatile loft area offers additional space for relaxation, work, or play. The Cartagena also includes a one-car garage and a charming lanai, providing an inviting outdoor retreat to enjoy the fresh air.

Key facts

• Versatile loft area
• Charming lanai
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT AREA
• CHARMING LANAI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $260k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-193/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Haines City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $212,396 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,499
• List price: $259,999
• Delta: 0.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4184 Hummock Pl	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,720 (0%)	1mo	$259,499	$151	97
4160 Hummock Pl	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,720 (0%)	1mo	$259,499	$151	95
4222 Hillock Blvd	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,720 (0%)	1mo	$272,499	$158	95
4250 Hillock Blvd	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,720 (0%)	0mo	$269,999	$157	95
4246 Hillock Blvd	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,720 (0%)	0mo	$269,999	$157	94
4144 Hummock Pl	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,548 (-10%)	0mo	$239,999	$155	79
4226 Hillock Blvd	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,548 (-10%)	1mo	$257,499	$166	78
4214 Hillock Blvd	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,548 (-10%)	2mo	$257,499	$166	78
4242 Hillock Blvd	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,534 (-11%)	0mo	$254,999	$166	77
4254 Hillock Blvd	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,534 (-11%)	0mo	$254,999	$166	76
4206 Hillock Blvd	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,866 (+8%)	2mo	$292,599	$157	76
4234 Hillock Blvd	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,866 (+8%)	2mo	$287,999	$154	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-47,050
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-57,688
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 40 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $253,900 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 58% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -9.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1941
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,124 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,667/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,144

Max offer price $257,154

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $57	+0% $-16	+5% $-90	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-100	+0% $-16	+5% $68	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $50	base $-16	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4156 Hummock Pl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,850	$1.20	119d	1	0.04mi
4226 Hillock Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,950	$1.26	7d	1	0.06mi
3754 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	119d	1	0.10mi
3840 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1542	$1,950	$1.26	7d	1	0.18mi
4813 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	119d	1	0.43mi
4770 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,000	$0.95	119d	1	0.46mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	119d	1	0.47mi
3841 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,150	$1.24	2d	1	0.47mi
4107 Longleaf St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2136	$2,000	$0.94	0d	1	0.47mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,448	$1.16	0d	1	0.50mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,920	$1.38	98d	1	0.50mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	119d	1	0.50mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,900	$1.38	98d	1	0.51mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	110d	1	0.52mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	73d	1	0.52mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Unit A Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$1,990	$0.94	65d	1	0.53mi
4317 Riverbend Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,100	$1.00	7d	1	0.53mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	119d	1	0.54mi
4045 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	9d	1	0.55mi
2526 Aveeno Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	9d	1	0.59mi
5514 Clove Row Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,200	$1.71	65d	1	0.60mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	0.65mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	73d	1	0.75mi
2974 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	0d	1	0.76mi
2990 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$2,300	$1.67	7d	1	0.77mi
313 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$2,081	$1.26	80d	1	0.84mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	119d	1	0.89mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,050	$1.10	73d	1	0.89mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	9d	1	0.89mi
932 Blue Creek Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1707	$2,050	$1.20	9d	1	0.90mi
932 Blue Creek Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1707	$2,050	$1.20	73d	1	0.90mi
333 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,985	$1.04	107d	1	0.90mi
339 Towns Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,795	$1.40	73d	1	0.91mi
351 Towns Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,900	$1.48	9d	1	0.92mi
117 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2099	$2,080	$0.99	92d	1	0.98mi
120 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,970	$1.03	80d	1	0.98mi
202 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,905	$0.96	107d	1	1.00mi
1445 Sea Glass Rd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$2,100	$1.71	84d	1	1.01mi
148 Summerlin Loop Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,850	$1.17	110d	1	1.01mi
167 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,920	$0.97	80d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $259,999 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $259,999 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $259,999 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $259,999 Active 30 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,667 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,667 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$2,667
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,039
• − Management: −$2,039
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$4,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,124
• After-tax cash flow: $931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This beautifully designed two-story townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to enhance its value with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Eastside Elementary School F FL #1,854/2,144 Nat'l #26,096/41,679 Middle Shelley S. Boone Middle School F FL #517/571 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Haines City Senior High School F FL #544/667 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B