321 Saint John Rd NW · Pinson, AL 35215

$188,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,494 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1975 10,018 sqft lot Est $188k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * PRICE ADJUSTMENT * * This 3br/2ba, split leveled home is looking for a new owner. Home has a large living room, an eat-in kitchen which opens into the basement den and fireplace. Outside of the kitchen is a a large deck overlooking the fenced backyard. Home also has a small patio and a workshop area in the basement garage. With a few more updates and/or repairs, home can be as good as new. Now, all that is missing is you.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($736/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.3% in Pinson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#289 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pinson Elementary School (801 students, 54% FRL); Pinson Valley High School (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #246 of 305 statewide, top 81%, 1,029 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,167 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.39%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,244
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5943 Princess Blvd	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,426 (-5%)	2mo	$226,900	$159	83
4018 Saint John Way NW	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-6%)	6mo	$185,000	$132	78
308 Saint John Rd NW	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,277 (-14%)	3mo	$209,900	$164	71
6037 May Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+4%)	6mo	$165,000	$107	71
108 38th Ave NE	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+3%)	10mo	$170,000	$111	62
285 Martin Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+6%)	12mo	$199,900	$126	56
3329 Flynt Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-5%)	10mo	$250,000	$177	54
129 38th Ave NE	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+5%)	16mo	$180,000	$115	51
3035 Apple Valley Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,682 (+13%)	5mo	$225,000	$134	44
3136 Fieldstone Cir	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,697 (+14%)	2mo	$195,000	$115	43
4338 Oak St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-10%)	11mo	$154,000	$114	40
3148 Cobblestone Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (+11%)	16mo	$201,000	$121	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-26,737
• Equity at exit: $28,166

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-18,385
• Equity at exit: $16,333

Cash invested: $52,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,492 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $573/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,414

Max offer price $188,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $115	+0% $61	+5% $8	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-57	-5% $2	+0% $61	+5% $120	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $109	base $61	+0.5pp $12	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,225
• Closing costs: $5,667
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
212 Saint John Dr NW Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1445	$1,423	$0.98	15d	1	0.06mi
5992 Princess Blvd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,661	$1.14	44d	1	0.18mi
149 Martin Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,485	$1.28	24d	1	0.39mi
4246 Centerwood Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,450	$1.09	16d	1	0.84mi
3104 Cobblestone Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1533	$1,516	$0.99	3d	1	0.86mi
202 Westchester Dr Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1374	$1,300	$0.95	24d	1	0.88mi
3073 Panorama E Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,275	$1.31	2d	20	0.88mi
4205 Silver Lake Rd Unit 4205 Pinson, AL	2.0	1.0	1210	$1,200	$0.99	15d	1	0.96mi
232 Glenvalley Ln NW Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	954	$1,610	$1.69	3d	1	1.00mi
3309 Chase Ln Unit 3309 Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,000	$0.94	44d	1	1.05mi
1104 Oak Creek Trl NE Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,543	$1.25	2d	1	1.37mi
127 Fox Hill Ct Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,545	$1.09	44d	1	1.37mi
2629 Wood Dr NE Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1203	$1,250	$1.04	44d	1	1.45mi
2655 6th St NE Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,390	$0.87	3d	1	1.46mi
605 Country View Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,560	$0.92	44d	1	1.47mi
607 Country View Dr Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,550	$0.99	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-24
   listed $188,900 Active
3. 2026-01-12
   historical $188,900
4. 2023-07-10
   soldstatus $145,000
5. 2023-07-06
   soldstatus $145,000 Sold 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   * * PRICE ADJUSTMENT * * This 3br/2ba, split leveled home is looking for a new owner. Home has a large living room, an eat-in kitchen which opens into the basement den and fireplace. Outside of the kitchen is a a large deck overlooking the fenced backyard. Home also has a small patio and a workshop area in the basement garage. With a few more updates and/or repairs, home can be as good as new. Now, all that is missing is you.

6. 2023-05-16
   status Pending 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   * * PRICE ADJUSTMENT * * This 3br/2ba, split leveled home is looking for a new owner. Home has a large living room, an eat-in kitchen which opens into the basement den and fireplace. Outside of the kitchen is a a large deck overlooking the fenced backyard. Home also has a small patio and a workshop area in the basement garage. With a few more updates and/or repairs, home can be as good as new. Now, all that is missing is you.

7. 2023-04-06
   price $148,900 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   * * PRICE ADJUSTMENT * * This 3br/2ba, split leveled home is looking for a new owner. Home has a large living room, an eat-in kitchen which opens into the basement den and fireplace. Outside of the kitchen is a a large deck overlooking the fenced backyard. Home also has a small patio and a workshop area in the basement garage. With a few more updates and/or repairs, home can be as good as new. Now, all that is missing is you.

8. 2023-03-07
   price $159,900 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   * * PRICE ADJUSTMENT * * This 3br/2ba, split leveled home is looking for a new owner. Home has a large living room, an eat-in kitchen which opens into the basement den and fireplace. Outside of the kitchen is a a large deck overlooking the fenced backyard. Home also has a small patio and a workshop area in the basement garage. With a few more updates and/or repairs, home can be as good as new. Now, all that is missing is you.

9. 2023-01-31
   listed $166,900 Active 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   * * PRICE ADJUSTMENT * * This 3br/2ba, split leveled home is looking for a new owner. Home has a large living room, an eat-in kitchen which opens into the basement den and fireplace. Outside of the kitchen is a a large deck overlooking the fenced backyard. Home also has a small patio and a workshop area in the basement garage. With a few more updates and/or repairs, home can be as good as new. Now, all that is missing is you.

10. 2012-03-28
    soldstatus $97,000
11. 2012-02-29
    soldstatus $97,000 1012-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

    Pride of ownership shows here. Many upgrades have been made while these owners have lived here as: new 16 x 16(approx)deck with light caps; remodeled kitchen with new stove, built-in microwave, tile floor, built-in pantry and upgraded slide door to deck; all exterior doors new(3); A/C and H20 heater replaced; upgraded hardwood floors in bedrooms & foyer; master bath remodeled with tile, cabinets & floor; new garage door with opener & keypad; extra insulation added to attic; new plumbing in front and rear. Paint looks great and carpet in good shape too. You can move right in and have a very nice home. In additional to the new deck there is a large covered patio area and a large storage building for storage. Keep the pets and kids contained with the fenced back yard and the large shade tree in the backyard keeps the house protected and cool in the hot summer days. You will be delighted to see this house. A bargain in today's market with all of the upgrades and well cared for house.

12. 2011-10-23
    listed $104,900 1012-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

    Pride of ownership shows here. Many upgrades have been made while these owners have lived here as: new 16 x 16(approx)deck with light caps; remodeled kitchen with new stove, built-in microwave, tile floor, built-in pantry and upgraded slide door to deck; all exterior doors new(3); A/C and H20 heater replaced; upgraded hardwood floors in bedrooms & foyer; master bath remodeled with tile, cabinets & floor; new garage door with opener & keypad; extra insulation added to attic; new plumbing in front and rear. Paint looks great and carpet in good shape too. You can move right in and have a very nice home. In additional to the new deck there is a large covered patio area and a large storage building for storage. Keep the pets and kids contained with the fenced back yard and the large shade tree in the backyard keeps the house protected and cool in the hot summer days. You will be delighted to see this house. A bargain in today's market with all of the upgrades and well cared for house.

13. 1998-07-22
    soldstatus $69,000
14. 1989-12-29
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $573 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $774 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$201/yr (+$17/mo · 35.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,581
• − Property taxes: −$573
• − Insurance: −$944
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,432
• − Management: −$1,432
• − Depreciation: −$5,495
• Taxable loss: −$2,558
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$614
• After-tax cash flow: $1,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Pinson

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #18763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinson, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 22,599
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1729.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+243.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-24 Listed $188,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-12 Coming Soon $188,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-06 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-05-16 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-04-06 Price Changed $148,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-03-07 Price Changed $159,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-01-31 Listed $166,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2012-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 2012-02-29 Sold (MLS) $97,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2011-10-23 Listed $104,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1998-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 1989-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $573 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.