420 S Main St · Paullina, IA 51046

$139,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,658 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1922 9,583 sqft lot $84/sqft · 6% above area Est $131k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come take a look at this beautiful, four bedroom, one and half bath home located in a peaceful neighborhood!  Featured throughout this home is gorgeous original woodwork from much of the floor, trim, window casings, and original french doors - all creating a cozy one of a kind feel.   Located on the main floor is a spacious living room for entertaining.   The kitchen features lots of storage space as well as an adjoining dining room.   Follow me into the light filled sun room - a great play space, office, or enjoy your morning cup of coffee in peace before the rest of the world wakes up.   The master bedroom and a half bath finish off the main floor!  On the second floor you will find three more bedrooms each with plenty of closet storage space as well as a 3/4 bath.   Outside, the generous backyard has a new concrete patio poured in 2020.

Key facts

• Original woodwork
• New concrete patio
• Spacious living room

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOODWORK
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LIGHT FILLED SUN ROOM
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• NEW CONCRETE PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($908/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#204 in IA, #3,719 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• South O'Brien Community School District (rural): math 64% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #196 of 289 in IA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in O'Brien County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• O'Brien County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $139k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.33%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,906
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 6.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 S Main St	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,658 (0%)	0mo	$121,500	$73	94
230 S Main St	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,646 (-1%)	16mo	$80,000	$49	73
418 S Maple St	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,554 (-6%)	3mo	$235,000	$151	68
417 S Rutledge St	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,819 (+10%)	15mo	$158,000	$87	63
424 S Main St	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-10%)	22mo	$185,000	$123	54
315 South Cannon St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,820 (+10%)	17mo	$163,000	$90	52
420 W Day St	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,864 (+12%)	11mo	$130,000	$70	52
213 N Main St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (+11%)	23mo	$125,000	$68	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $45,878
• Equity at exit: $88,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $130,892
• Equity at exit: $161,151

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51046

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,384/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,142

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $115	+0% $76	+5% $36	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-22	-5% $27	+0% $76	+5% $125	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $111	base $76	+0.5pp $40	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 886-char remark

   Show marketing remark (886 chars)

   Come take a look at this beautiful, four bedroom, one and half bath home located in a peaceful neighborhood!  Featured throughout this home is gorgeous original woodwork from much of the floor, trim, window casings, and original french doors - all creating a cozy one of a kind feel.   Located on the main floor is a spacious living room for entertaining.   The kitchen features lots of storage space as well as an adjoining dining room.   Follow me into the light filled sun room - a great play space, office, or enjoy your morning cup of coffee in peace before the rest of the world wakes up.   The master bedroom and a half bath finish off the main floor!  On the second floor you will find three more bedrooms each with plenty of closet storage space as well as a 3/4 bath.   Outside, the generous backyard has a new concrete patio poured in 2020.

2. 2026-03-05
   status Active 886-char remark

   Show marketing remark (886 chars)

   Come take a look at this beautiful, four bedroom, one and half bath home located in a peaceful neighborhood!  Featured throughout this home is gorgeous original woodwork from much of the floor, trim, window casings, and original french doors - all creating a cozy one of a kind feel.   Located on the main floor is a spacious living room for entertaining.   The kitchen features lots of storage space as well as an adjoining dining room.   Follow me into the light filled sun room - a great play space, office, or enjoy your morning cup of coffee in peace before the rest of the world wakes up.   The master bedroom and a half bath finish off the main floor!  On the second floor you will find three more bedrooms each with plenty of closet storage space as well as a 3/4 bath.   Outside, the generous backyard has a new concrete patio poured in 2020.

3. 2025-11-05
   listed $139,000 Active 886-char remark

   Show marketing remark (886 chars)

   Come take a look at this beautiful, four bedroom, one and half bath home located in a peaceful neighborhood!  Featured throughout this home is gorgeous original woodwork from much of the floor, trim, window casings, and original french doors - all creating a cozy one of a kind feel.   Located on the main floor is a spacious living room for entertaining.   The kitchen features lots of storage space as well as an adjoining dining room.   Follow me into the light filled sun room - a great play space, office, or enjoy your morning cup of coffee in peace before the rest of the world wakes up.   The master bedroom and a half bath finish off the main floor!  On the second floor you will find three more bedrooms each with plenty of closet storage space as well as a 3/4 bath.   Outside, the generous backyard has a new concrete patio poured in 2020.

4. 2023-05-19
   listed $139,000 Active
5. 2019-09-03
   soldstatus $89,250
6. 2019-08-30
   soldstatus $89,500
7. 2019-05-29
   listed $89,500
8. 2015-05-01
   soldstatus $65,000
9. 2011-07-08
   soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,783 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$399/yr (+$33/mo · 28.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,384
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,188
• − Management: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,432
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$344
• After-tax cash flow: $1,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South O'Brien Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1900026
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,412
• Composite: 55.26/100
• National rank: #1267
• State rank: #196 of 289 in IA

Livability — Paullina

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #204
• US rank: #3719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paullina, IA
• Population (ZIP): 1,407

Population outlook (O'Brien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,353 people
• By 2030: 13,040 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 12,422 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 11,887 · -11.0%
• By 2075: 11,132 · -16.6%
• By 2100: 10,176 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 13% Portuguese 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · O'Brien

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.0% · R 80.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -34.9pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+56.8 2016: R+60.2 2012: R+45.2 2008: R+34.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.11%
• Current HPI: 201.747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+135.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — NWIA
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — NWIA
• 2025-11-05 Listed $139,000 NWIA
• 2023-05-19 Listed $139,000 NWIA
• 2019-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $89,250 Public Records
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) $89,500 NWIA
• 2019-05-29 Listed $89,500 NWIA
• 2015-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2011-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,384 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.