13129 Old Canoe Way · Ruskin, FL 34219

$349,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,739 sqft · Land · 56 Days on market

Built 2026 5,040 sqft lot $71/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Alford is a one-story home that balances style, space, and comfort. Offering 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,739 square feet, this floor plan provides plenty of room for families of all sizes. Its open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a welcoming space that's ideal for gatherings or everyday living. The kitchen is a standout with shaker-style cabinetry, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, all overlooking the dining area for easy entertaining. With its thoughtful layout and modern finishes, the Alford makes it easy to create the home that fits your lifestyle. The primary suite is tucked at the back of the home for added privacy, featuring a walk-in closet and a private bathroom with dual vanities and a separate space for the shower and toilet. Four additional bedrooms at the front of the home offer flexibility for family, guests, or even a home office.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Splash pad
• Resort-style pool

Tags

• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• SPLASH PAD
• PLAYGROUND
• DOG PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty provided; Permit number: COBLD2509-0052
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,630; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by First Service Residential; Monthly HOA approximately $71.67; Quarterly association fee listed ($215); Association approval required; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, cable TV; Community features: clubhouse, playground, pool, sidewalks; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car) with 21x13 dimensions; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-07-31); One level; East-facing entry
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Built by D.R. Horton (model: ALFORD)
• Exterior features: Patio; Sliding doors; Pond view; Trees/landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $307,058 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.84%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-56,048
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-71,447
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,752/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,881

Max offer price $349,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	3d	1	0.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $349,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $352,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $352,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $352,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $352,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $352,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $354,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $354,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $354,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $354,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $357,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $357,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $357,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $357,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    price $357,000 932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (932 chars)

    The Alford is a one-story home that balances style, space, and comfort. Offering 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,739 square feet, this floor plan provides plenty of room for families of all sizes. Its open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a welcoming space that's ideal for gatherings or everyday living. The kitchen is a standout with shaker-style cabinetry, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, all overlooking the dining area for easy entertaining. With its thoughtful layout and modern finishes, the Alford makes it easy to create the home that fits your lifestyle. The primary suite is tucked at the back of the home for added privacy, featuring a walk-in closet and a private bathroom with dual vanities and a separate space for the shower and toilet. Four additional bedrooms at the front of the home offer flexibility for family, guests, or even a home office.

17. 2026-05-20
    price $357,000
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $359,000 Active 932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (932 chars)

    The Alford is a one-story home that balances style, space, and comfort. Offering 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,739 square feet, this floor plan provides plenty of room for families of all sizes. Its open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a welcoming space that's ideal for gatherings or everyday living. The kitchen is a standout with shaker-style cabinetry, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, all overlooking the dining area for easy entertaining. With its thoughtful layout and modern finishes, the Alford makes it easy to create the home that fits your lifestyle. The primary suite is tucked at the back of the home for added privacy, featuring a walk-in closet and a private bathroom with dual vanities and a separate space for the shower and toilet. Four additional bedrooms at the front of the home offer flexibility for family, guests, or even a home office.

19. 2026-04-23
    listed $359,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,752 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,897 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$145/yr (+$12/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$2,752
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,948
• − Management: −$2,948
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$4,100
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$984
• After-tax cash flow: $2,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $357,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $357,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $359,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Listed $359,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid