38634 Lansing Ave · Zephyrhills, FL 33542

$64,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1973 3,231 sqft lot Est $59k · 11% over $120/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to Sleepy Hollow where comfort, convenience, and community come together in one of Zephyrhills’ most inviting 55+ neighborhoods. This well-cared-for 1-bedroom, 1-bath home offers added flexibility with a bonus room currently set up as a 2nd bedroom perfect for guests, hobbies, or extra living space. With low monthly HOA fees of just $120 and share ownership included, this property delivers both affordability andlong-term value. Step inside to a light-filled, open-concept layout connecting the living, dining, and kitchen ideal for everyday living and easy entertaining. Updated windows bring in plenty of natural light, and the home is be

Key facts

• Updated windows
• Covered carport
• Bonus room

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• FLORIDA ROOM
• COVERED CARPORT
• SCREENED SITTING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Home warranty: No
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $120; Total annual fees: $1,440
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $120); Association amenities: Clubhouse, Pool, Shuffleboard court; Association fee includes grounds maintenance and pool; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Senior community; Cats allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); Attached property; One story; Faces southeast; Entry level: One/ground level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as single wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Side porch; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Bonus room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.8% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 802 students, 82% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,953 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.39%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38641 Lansing Ave	0.02mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672 (+8%)	2mo	$50,000	$74	79
38734 Minnesota Ave	0.23mi	1/1.5	600 (-4%)	2mo	$51,000	$85	79
6323 Ohio St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (-4%)	4mo	$35,000	$58	72
6349 20th St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (+1)	644 (+3%)	6mo	$37,000	$57	68
6343 Ohio St	0.26mi	2/1.5 (+1)	672 (+8%)	2mo	$63,500	$94	66
38755 New Jersey Ave	0.26mi	2/1.5 (+1)	672 (+8%)	5mo	$75,000	$112	64
6423 Ohio St	0.23mi	2/1.5 (+1)	684 (+10%)	7mo	$75,000	$110	61
39301 Maher Dr	0.66mi	1/1.0	639 (+2%)	9mo	$66,500	$104	58
6301 Connecticut St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (+1)	684 (+10%)	10mo	$64,000	$94	58
39107 Hillcrest Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672 (+8%)	2mo	$77,000	$115	57
39206 Hillcrest Dr	0.60mi	2/1.0 (+1)	576 (-8%)	7mo	$25,000	$43	48
38988 Stapley Cir	0.72mi	2/1.5 (+1)	672 (+8%)	5mo	$50,000	$74	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $4,097
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $14,358
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,101 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,249/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $749

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $315	-5% $297	+0% $278	+5% $260	+10% $242
Rent	-10% $191	-5% $235	+0% $278	+5% $322	+10% $365
Rate	-1.0pp $311	-0.5pp $295	base $278	+0.5pp $262	+1.0pp $245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	5d	1	0.18mi
39029 Kirkland Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$950	$1.90	25d	1	0.41mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	25d	1	0.50mi
38706 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	445	$974	$2.19	17d	2	0.54mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	25d	1	0.95mi
38010 14th Ave Apt 3 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	537	$1,195	$2.23	25d	1	1.01mi
5426 8th St #1 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$1,150	$2.66	25d	1	1.09mi
5611 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	17d	1	1.16mi
5600 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$1,100	$1.51	25d	1	1.17mi
5548 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	13d	1	1.19mi
5603 Eugene Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	13d	1	1.21mi
39041 Manor Dr Unit B Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	450	$1,000	$2.22	25d	1	1.21mi
5552 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	25d	1	1.22mi
5217 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,050	$1.94	25d	1	1.29mi
5206 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.30mi
5208 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.30mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	17d	1	1.30mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.30mi
5150 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	25d	1	1.36mi
6991 Fort King Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$899	$1.80	25d	1	1.40mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,466	$1.71	2d	142	1.41mi
38044 6th Ave Unit 38044 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$950	$1.92	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-04
   listed $64,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,249 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,249 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$1,249
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,057
• − Management: −$1,057
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $2,563
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$615
• After-tax cash flow: $2,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Listed $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,249 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.