914 Mary St · Monticello, MS 39654

$90,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,475 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1940 1.00 ac lot $61/sqft · 35% below area Est $157k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come take a look at this home right in the heart of Monticello. Close to grocery stores, school and park.

Key facts

• Close to school
• Close to park
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• CLOSE TO GROCERY STORES
• CLOSE TO SCHOOL
• CLOSE TO PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#24 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #85 of 130 in MS (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.86%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,251
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -42.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $31,344
• Equity at exit: $38,286

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $82,578
• Equity at exit: $57,359

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39654

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $950/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $745

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $90,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $90,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $90,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-01-12
    listed $90,000 Active 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    Come take a look at this home right in the heart of Monticello. Close to grocery stores, school and park.

11. 2005-08-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$950
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,146
• − Management: −$1,146
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $2,970
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$713
• After-tax cash flow: $3,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802490
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,725
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8812
• State rank: #85 of 130 in MS

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #6306

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Monticello, MS
• Population (ZIP): 4,589

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,069 people
• By 2030: 11,724 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 10,955 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 10,085 · -16.4%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 5,614 · -53.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.6) · D 31.4% · R 68.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.4pp · 2024: -36.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.6 2020: R+30.6 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+26.7 2008: R+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.57%
• Current HPI: 117.8262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Listed $90,000 MLSU
• 2005-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $950 · -36.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.