589 Duncan Cir E · Auburndale, FL 33823

$197,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 453 Days on market

Built 1975 7,523 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLER! Come see this 3 bedroom 1 bathroom home with a covers A/C patio in the backyard, 2021 roof and renovated bathroom. Home needs TLC. Make your appointment to see this home TODAY!

Key facts

• Renovated bathroom
• 2021 roof
• Covers a/c patio

Tags

• COVERS A/C PATIO
• 2021 ROOF
• RENOVATED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot ~0.17 acres (approx. 75 x 100); Zoned R-2

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces east; Entry on one level
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building area ~1,540 sq ft
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Sliding doors (interior access)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $197k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($268/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lena Vista Elementary School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 975 students, 56% FRL); Jere L. Stambaugh Middle (math 23% / reading 26%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,127 students, 65% FRL); Tenoroc High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,127 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 483 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 453 days — a 12% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 453 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,154
• Equity at exit: $29,373

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,994
• Equity at exit: $17,033

Cash invested: $55,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 483
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,019/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,730

Max offer price $197,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $134	-5% $78	+0% $22	+5% $-33	+10% $-89
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-47	+0% $22	+5% $92	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $72	base $22	+0.5pp $-29	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,250
• Closing costs: $5,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3014 Reiter Dr Unit A Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	826	$1,325	$1.60	25d	1	0.26mi
110 Oleander Ave Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$2,100	$2.92	25d	1	0.73mi
704 Sunset Ave Unit B Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,340	$1.58	16d	1	1.32mi
4 Sandy Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	954	$1,620	$1.70	25d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $197,000 Active 453 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,000 Active 450 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,000 Active 449 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,000 Active 448 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,000 Active 447 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,000 Active 445 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $197,000 Active 442 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,000 Active 441 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,000 Active 440 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $197,000 Active 439 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $197,000 Active 436 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,000 Active 434 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,000 Active 433 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,000 Active 432 DOM
15. 2025-07-04
    status Active
16. 2025-05-28
    status Pending
17. 2025-03-27
    price $197,000
18. 2025-02-16
    listed $202,000 Active
19. 2021-09-23
    soldstatus $160,000
20. 2004-06-16
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,019 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,019 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,035
• − Property taxes: −$3,019
• − Insurance: −$985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$5,731
• Taxable loss: −$3,046
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$731
• After-tax cash flow: $999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+181.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $197,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-16 Listed $202,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,019 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.