1841 Trosper Rd SW #14 · Tumwater, WA 98512

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1975 $68/sqft · 16% below area Est $85k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fantastic price reduction on this clean sweet home! Come and take a look today. Welcome to your next chapter: Active 55+ living conveniently located close into Tumwater in Western Plaza Manufactured Home Park. Enjoy being just a minute or two from shopping, restaurants, medical services and easy I-5 access. Recent improvements to this well maintained home include new carpeting and flooring, new sinks and faucets, new pretty lighting, efficient vinyl windows, a recently recoated roof, a re-built furnace; freshly serviced and stay cool in the Summer with a fabulous heat pump. Low maintenance living just steps to the park clubhouse for social events. Home has an extra large driveway with a ca

Key facts

• New lighting
• New carpeting
• New faucets

Tags

• NEW CARPETING
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW SINKS
• NEW FAUCETS
• NEW LIGHTING
• EFFICIENT VINYL WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.7% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $65k implies a 557% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $59,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.78%
• DSCR: 4.24
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,000
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -23.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1841 Trosper Rd SW #30	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	9mo	$110,000	$115	93
930 Trosper Rd SW #3	0.33mi	2/2.0	952 (-1%)	1mo	$65,000	$68	82
930 Trosper Rd SW #34	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	11mo	$45,400	$44	57
5281 E Eagle Ln SW	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	15mo	$235,000	$223	57
5705 Littlerock Rd SW #20	0.34mi	2/1.0	882 (-8%)	22mo	$40,000	$45	48
930 Trosper Rd SW #60	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,024 (+7%)	23mo	$44,000	$43	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $58,351
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.45×
• Total profit: $135,590
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98512

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,963 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $950/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $1,104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $566

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1978 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,428	$2.31	43d	3	0.25mi
1978 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1106	$2,246	$2.03	13d	4	0.25mi
4822 Rural Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,995	$1.95	21d	1	0.54mi
1517 Bishop Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	669	$1,930	$2.88	13d	1	0.54mi
6705 Linderson Way SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,038	$2.26	13d	6	0.68mi
301 Lee St SW Tumwater, WA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,385	$2.13	43d	1	0.71mi
6805 Littlerock Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	43d	1	0.72mi
301 T St SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	589	$1,635	$2.78	13d	5	0.75mi
215 Pinehurst Dr SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0–2.5	759	$1,950	$2.57	13d	4	0.78mi
214 65th Way SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	21d	1	0.89mi
829 Israel Rd SW Apt B6 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	43d	1	0.92mi
829 Israel Rd SW Apt A4 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	13d	1	0.92mi
801 Israel Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.5	965	$1,860	$1.93	13d	2	0.98mi
6504 Capitol Blvd SE Tumwater, WA	1.0	1.0	974	$2,125	$2.18	13d	1	1.00mi
220 Israel Rd SW Unit G8 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.5	968	$1,975	$2.04	43d	1	1.01mi
151 Cherry Ln SE Tumwater, WA	3.0	1.0	874	$2,195	$2.51	21d	1	1.08mi
1704 Barnes Blvd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	920	$2,004	$2.18	13d	35	1.41mi
1992 Ridgeview Loop SW Unit 204 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	804	$1,700	$2.11	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 78 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $82,000
17. 2026-03-13
    listed $89,000 Active
18. 2012-07-10
    soldstatus $9,900 Sold
19. 2012-06-17
    price $9,975
20. 2012-05-31
    listed $10,495 Active
21. 2012-01-17
    soldstatus $10,900 Sold
22. 2012-01-16
    status Pending
23. 2011-11-18
    listed $11,500 Active
24. 2011-11-04
    soldstatus $10,900 Sold
25. 2011-09-30
    price $10,900
26. 2011-08-25
    price $11,900
27. 2011-08-02
    listed $14,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$950
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,885
• − Management: −$1,885
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $12,983
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,116
• After-tax cash flow: $10,131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tumwater School District
• NCES district ID: 5309100
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,209
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #2477
• State rank: #37 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tumwater

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #700

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tumwater, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 46,937
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,864
• Household income: $101,530
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.18%
• Current HPI: 347.121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+465.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $82,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $89,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-10 Sold (MLS) $9,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-17 Price Changed $9,975 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-31 Listed $10,495 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-17 Sold (MLS) $10,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-16 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-18 Listed $11,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-04 Sold (MLS) $10,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-30 Price Changed $10,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-25 Price Changed $11,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-02 Listed $14,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $950 · +25.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.