20358 NY 22 · North Pownal, VT 12138

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 246 Days on market

Built 1935 0.53 ac lot $220/sqft · 15% below area Est $199k · 15% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-loved and well-maintained home in the hamlet of North Petersburgh. This property features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom nestled on just over a half-acre. Plenty of space for outdoor fun and/or gardening. Inside find a cozy open concept kitchen, dining and living space with 3 seasons enclosed porch. A walk-up attic could make a great finished space for extra living or indoor hobbies. Move in ready with newer roof, windows, and fresh exterior paint. You won't want to miss this one!

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Newer roof
• Walk-up attic

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• 3 SEASONS ENCLOSED PORCH
• WALK-UP ATTIC
• NEWER ROOF
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hoosick Falls Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #469 of 755 in NY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.15%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,443
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -15.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $99,999
• Equity at exit: $152,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $288,327
• Equity at exit: $328,330

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12138

• Home prices YoY: 9.0%
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,781/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,504

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $169,000 Pending 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 243 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 241 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,000 Active 240 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 236 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 235 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 231 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 227 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    price $169,000 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Well-loved and well-maintained home in the hamlet of North Petersburgh. This property features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom nestled on just over a half-acre. Plenty of space for outdoor fun and/or gardening. Inside find a cozy open concept kitchen, dining and living space with 3 seasons enclosed porch. A walk-up attic could make a great finished space for extra living or indoor hobbies. Move in ready with newer roof, windows, and fresh exterior paint. You won't want to miss this one!

17. 2026-03-31
    status Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Well-loved and well-maintained home in the hamlet of North Petersburgh. This property features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom nestled on just over a half-acre. Plenty of space for outdoor fun and/or gardening. Inside find a cozy open concept kitchen, dining and living space with 3 seasons enclosed porch. A walk-up attic could make a great finished space for extra living or indoor hobbies. Move in ready with newer roof, windows, and fresh exterior paint. You won't want to miss this one!

18. 2026-03-27
    status Pending 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Well-loved and well-maintained home in the hamlet of North Petersburgh. This property features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom nestled on just over a half-acre. Plenty of space for outdoor fun and/or gardening. Inside find a cozy open concept kitchen, dining and living space with 3 seasons enclosed porch. A walk-up attic could make a great finished space for extra living or indoor hobbies. Move in ready with newer roof, windows, and fresh exterior paint. You won't want to miss this one!

19. 2026-01-16
    price $175,000 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Well-loved and well-maintained home in the hamlet of North Petersburgh. This property features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom nestled on just over a half-acre. Plenty of space for outdoor fun and/or gardening. Inside find a cozy open concept kitchen, dining and living space with 3 seasons enclosed porch. A walk-up attic could make a great finished space for extra living or indoor hobbies. Move in ready with newer roof, windows, and fresh exterior paint. You won't want to miss this one!

20. 2026-01-03
    status Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Well-loved and well-maintained home in the hamlet of North Petersburgh. This property features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom nestled on just over a half-acre. Plenty of space for outdoor fun and/or gardening. Inside find a cozy open concept kitchen, dining and living space with 3 seasons enclosed porch. A walk-up attic could make a great finished space for extra living or indoor hobbies. Move in ready with newer roof, windows, and fresh exterior paint. You won't want to miss this one!

21. 2025-12-10
    status Pending 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Well-loved and well-maintained home in the hamlet of North Petersburgh. This property features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom nestled on just over a half-acre. Plenty of space for outdoor fun and/or gardening. Inside find a cozy open concept kitchen, dining and living space with 3 seasons enclosed porch. A walk-up attic could make a great finished space for extra living or indoor hobbies. Move in ready with newer roof, windows, and fresh exterior paint. You won't want to miss this one!

22. 2025-09-26
    price $180,000 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Well-loved and well-maintained home in the hamlet of North Petersburgh. This property features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom nestled on just over a half-acre. Plenty of space for outdoor fun and/or gardening. Inside find a cozy open concept kitchen, dining and living space with 3 seasons enclosed porch. A walk-up attic could make a great finished space for extra living or indoor hobbies. Move in ready with newer roof, windows, and fresh exterior paint. You won't want to miss this one!

23. 2025-09-17
    listed $200,000 Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Well-loved and well-maintained home in the hamlet of North Petersburgh. This property features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom nestled on just over a half-acre. Plenty of space for outdoor fun and/or gardening. Inside find a cozy open concept kitchen, dining and living space with 3 seasons enclosed porch. A walk-up attic could make a great finished space for extra living or indoor hobbies. Move in ready with newer roof, windows, and fresh exterior paint. You won't want to miss this one!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,781 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,996 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: +$215/yr (+$18/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,781
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$1,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$302
• After-tax cash flow: $1,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoosick Falls Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614760
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,349
• Composite: 44.44/100
• National rank: #6093
• State rank: #469 of 755 in NY

Livability — North Pownal

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,826

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.77%
• Current HPI: 324.5137
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $169,000 Global MLS
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2026-03-27 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $175,000 Global MLS
• 2026-01-03 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-12-10 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $180,000 Global MLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $200,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,781 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.