26900 Fishermans Rd · Paisley, FL 32767

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2021

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Super private 5 acres in serene rural lake county. Paved road access to this piece of heaven in a quiet and peaceful area of Paisley surrounded by ranches and estates. The home is a 1997 manufactured that will need work, Property has one out building, a small pond a secluded driveway. Cash offers investor special Motivated seller. Feel free to make offers.

Key facts

• Out building
• Small pond
• 5 acres

Tags

• 5 ACRES
• PAVED ROAD ACCESS
• SMALL POND
• SECLUDED DRIVEWAY
• OUT BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-919/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#563 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Creek Charter School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 630 students, 100% FRL, charter); Umatilla Middle School (math 58% / reading 46%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 595 students, 57% FRL); Umatilla High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 861 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $200k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $104,074
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $310,361
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32767

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,472/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,747

Max offer price $186,478

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $37	-5% $-20	+0% $-77	+5% $-133	+10% $-190
Rent	-10% $-207	-5% $-142	+0% $-77	+5% $-11	+10% $54
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-26	base $-77	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25946 Pine Ridge Rd Paisley, FL	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,650	$0.94	6d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $200,000 Active
2. 2017-05-02
   soldstatus $94,000
3. 1987-09-01
   soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,472 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$188/yr (+$16/mo · 12.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,472
• − Insurance: −$2,502
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,364
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,047
• After-tax cash flow: $129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Paisley

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #563
• US rank: #10787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,839

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.00%
• Current HPI: 372.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1011.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $200,000 FSBO.com
• 2017-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,472 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.