10528 Coles Ln · Fredericksburg, VA 22408

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,115 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1960 6,970 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor's Special!! Rare investor opportunity in the heart of Fredericksburg. This property sits in a highly desirable location close to schools, shopping, and major commuter routes. The land value alone makes this a compelling play. The home requires complete renovation or teardown redevelopment. Adding to the upside: the neighboring property sold for $368,000 in 2023, and another for $370,000 in 2024-demonstrating strong comparable value in the immediate area. Property is strictly sold as-is. Do not enter the home, hazardous conditions exist. Contact listing agent for full details and showing instructions.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Complete renovation
• Close to shopping

Tags

• HIGHLY DESIRABLE LOCATION
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• MAJOR COMMUTER ROUTES
• COMPLETE RENOVATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric service available; Well water; On-site septic
• Home design: Detached structure; Above-grade finished living space per assessor
• Construction: Brick construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Located outside city limits; On-site septic; Well water; Electric available

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Living area per assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $929 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.6% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#299 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, schools A, employment A-; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.66%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $355,685
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Powell St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-1%)	3mo	$412,000	$373	78
10534 Coles Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+3%)	18mo	$370,000	$323	75
114 Hamilton St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,148 (+3%)	1mo	$410,000	$357	70
107 Hamilton St	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-2%)	6mo	$324,000	$298	66
300 Hamilton St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-10%)	2mo	$325,000	$322	64
10510 White Street Ct	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,108 (-1%)	22mo	$317,000	$286	61
2500 Melchris Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+7%)	6mo	$345,000	$288	59
10632 Tidewater Trl	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,271 (+14%)	15mo	$300,000	$236	58
10803 Allie Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,238 (+11%)	10mo	$350,000	$283	50
410 Powell St	0.45mi	3/2.0	988 (-11%)	8mo	$315,000	$319	49
302 Hamilton St	0.41mi	3/2.0	988 (-11%)	18mo	$315,000	$319	43
4514 Greenfield Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,270 (+14%)	7mo	$375,000	$295	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $38,413
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $110,763
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22408

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,184/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $929

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,056

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,003	-5% $966	+0% $929	+5% $893	+10% $856
Rent	-10% $753	-5% $841	+0% $929	+5% $1,018	+10% $1,106
Rate	-1.0pp $995	-0.5pp $962	base $929	+0.5pp $896	+1.0pp $862

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10502 Guilderland Ct Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1123	$1,800	$1.60	13d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $129,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 616-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $129,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,184
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,143
• − Management: −$2,143
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $9,612
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,307
• After-tax cash flow: $8,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #10735

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Spotsylvania County · 138,364 people
• City population: 207,206
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 31,586
• Household income: $110,112
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.72%
• Current HPI: 259.5759
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,184 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.