227 E Castleshoals Dr · Granite Shoals, TX 78654

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 199 Days on market

Built 2001 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Texas Hill Country! Granite Shoals, Texas is truly the place to be! You will fall in love with this charming three-bedroom, two-bath manufactured home situated on a spacious 0.34-acre lot, offering plenty of room to expand, garden, or entertain. The property also includes, washer/dryer, refrigerator, microwave, and a septic system. With just a little TLC, this home can easily become your perfect retreat. The moment you walk through the door, you're greeted by a welcoming family-room atmosphere, cozy comfortable and relaxing. The open flow between the family room and kitchen creates the ideal space for gathering and everyday living. Located just a few miles from Lake Lyndon B. Johnson and the "City of Parks", you'll enjoy outdoor recreation, lake activities, and natural beauty right at your fingertips.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Lake activities
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• LAKE ACTIVITIES
• NATURAL BEAUTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 1.1% in Granite Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#684 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 752 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.27%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,240
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,082
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78654

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 752
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,525/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,270

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 E Castleshoals Dr Granite Shoals, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,350	$1.32	43d	1	0.02mi
1202 N Mystic Dr Granite Shoals, TX	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,199	$1.57	12d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 189 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 188 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 184 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-04-13
    price $140,000 822-char remark

    Show marketing remark (822 chars)

    Texas Hill Country! Granite Shoals, Texas is truly the place to be! You will fall in love with this charming three-bedroom, two-bath manufactured home situated on a spacious 0.34-acre lot, offering plenty of room to expand, garden, or entertain. The property also includes, washer/dryer, refrigerator, microwave, and a septic system. With just a little TLC, this home can easily become your perfect retreat. The moment you walk through the door, you're greeted by a welcoming family-room atmosphere, cozy comfortable and relaxing. The open flow between the family room and kitchen creates the ideal space for gathering and everyday living. Located just a few miles from Lake Lyndon B. Johnson and the "City of Parks", you'll enjoy outdoor recreation, lake activities, and natural beauty right at your fingertips.

15. 2026-03-02
    price $150,000 822-char remark

    Show marketing remark (822 chars)

    Texas Hill Country! Granite Shoals, Texas is truly the place to be! You will fall in love with this charming three-bedroom, two-bath manufactured home situated on a spacious 0.34-acre lot, offering plenty of room to expand, garden, or entertain. The property also includes, washer/dryer, refrigerator, microwave, and a septic system. With just a little TLC, this home can easily become your perfect retreat. The moment you walk through the door, you're greeted by a welcoming family-room atmosphere, cozy comfortable and relaxing. The open flow between the family room and kitchen creates the ideal space for gathering and everyday living. Located just a few miles from Lake Lyndon B. Johnson and the "City of Parks", you'll enjoy outdoor recreation, lake activities, and natural beauty right at your fingertips.

16. 2026-02-16
    price $160,000 822-char remark

    Show marketing remark (822 chars)

    Texas Hill Country! Granite Shoals, Texas is truly the place to be! You will fall in love with this charming three-bedroom, two-bath manufactured home situated on a spacious 0.34-acre lot, offering plenty of room to expand, garden, or entertain. The property also includes, washer/dryer, refrigerator, microwave, and a septic system. With just a little TLC, this home can easily become your perfect retreat. The moment you walk through the door, you're greeted by a welcoming family-room atmosphere, cozy comfortable and relaxing. The open flow between the family room and kitchen creates the ideal space for gathering and everyday living. Located just a few miles from Lake Lyndon B. Johnson and the "City of Parks", you'll enjoy outdoor recreation, lake activities, and natural beauty right at your fingertips.

17. 2025-12-01
    listed $175,000 Active 822-char remark

    Show marketing remark (822 chars)

    Texas Hill Country! Granite Shoals, Texas is truly the place to be! You will fall in love with this charming three-bedroom, two-bath manufactured home situated on a spacious 0.34-acre lot, offering plenty of room to expand, garden, or entertain. The property also includes, washer/dryer, refrigerator, microwave, and a septic system. With just a little TLC, this home can easily become your perfect retreat. The moment you walk through the door, you're greeted by a welcoming family-room atmosphere, cozy comfortable and relaxing. The open flow between the family room and kitchen creates the ideal space for gathering and everyday living. Located just a few miles from Lake Lyndon B. Johnson and the "City of Parks", you'll enjoy outdoor recreation, lake activities, and natural beauty right at your fingertips.

18. 2005-11-30
    soldstatus
19. 2005-09-08
    soldstatus 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    FORECLOSURE PROPERTY TO BE SOLD IN 'AS IS' CONDITION. FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

20. 2005-06-24
    listed $25,000 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    FORECLOSURE PROPERTY TO BE SOLD IN 'AS IS' CONDITION. FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,525 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$37/yr (+$3/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,525
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,937
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$465
• After-tax cash flow: $3,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granite Shoals

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #684
• US rank: #12785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granite Shoals, TX
• County: Burnet County · 35,210 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,650
• Household income: $74,130
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
• Current HPI: 252.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+460.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2005-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-09-08 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2005-06-24 Listed $25,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,525 · +54.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.