20631 Sunshine Ln · Houston, TX 77388

$300

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1975 0.41 ac lot ↓ 46% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cash-Producing Investment Opportunity! Fantastic location just off I-45 and only one block from FM 2920. This property sits on approximately 8,856 sqft lot and includes 1 manufactured home. With no deed restrictions, the possibilities are endless—ideal for residential, commercial, or mixed use. Enjoy the flexibility and potential this property offers in a prime, high-growth area.

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $300).
• Cap rate 6898.1% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Springwoods Village Middle (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 511 students, 70% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $84 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 727.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 6898.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 24613.53%
• DSCR: 1096.16
• GRM: 0.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 1231.01×
• Total profit: $103,321
• Equity at exit: $45

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 2461.42×
• Total profit: $206,675
• Equity at exit: $26

Cash invested: $84 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77388

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 325

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$0 /mo · $4/yr
• Insurance: −$0
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $1,723

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3

Max offer price $300

Occupancy floor 16%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,723	-5% $1,723	+0% $1,723	+5% $1,723	+10% $1,723
Rent	-10% $1,550	-5% $1,637	+0% $1,723	+5% $1,809	+10% $1,895
Rate	-1.0pp $1,723	-0.5pp $1,723	base $1,723	+0.5pp $1,723	+1.0pp $1,723

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75
• Closing costs: $9
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2539 Spring Cypress Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1086	$2,214	$2.04	3d	20	0.75mi
2555 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,941	$2.07	2d	12	0.94mi
2953 FM 2920 Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,280	$2.29	2d	23	1.15mi
21400 Big Spring Valley Ave Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1074	$2,370	$2.21	3d	67	1.17mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $300 Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-26
   price $200,000
5. 2025-12-18
   price $350,000
6. 2025-11-12
   listed $370,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$17
• − Property taxes: −$4
• − Insurance: −$2
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − Depreciation: −$9
• Taxable income: $21,979
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,275
• After-tax cash flow: $15,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,425
• Household income: $102,323
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.68%
• Current HPI: 228.128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-45.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $370,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $697 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.