The San Marcos F Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$332,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,542 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The San Marcos, a two-story home perfect for any family! On the main floor, you can enjoy an open concept family and kitchen area that includes a spacious pantry. The primary suite is on the main floor along with a guest room and bathroom. Upstairs, there are three additional bedrooms as well as another bathroom and large loft space. Each bedroom has great storage space with large walk-in closets. Make it your own with The San Marcos' flexible floor plan. From additional garage space to a covered patio, you've got every opportunity to make The San Marcos your dream home. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

Key facts

• Spacious pantry
• Flexible floor plan
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FAMILY KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $332,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $336,895.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $333k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-469 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,333 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.97%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,895
• List price: $332,990
• Delta: -1.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 Harlingen Dr	0.11mi	5/3.0	2,542 (0%)	5mo	$339,990	$134	91
225 Harlingen Dr	0.15mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,407 (-5%)	10mo	$329,990	$137	69
217 Harlingen Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,407 (-5%)	11mo	$329,990	$137	69
236 Harlingen Dr	0.17mi	5/3.5	2,200 (-14%)	1mo	$329,990	$150	67
209 Harlingen Dr	0.11mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,407 (-5%)	16mo	$339,990	$141	66
221 Harlingen Dr	0.14mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,743 (+8%)	16mo	$364,990	$133	60
25215 Brookstone Way	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,260 (-11%)	1mo	$333,790	$148	56
455 6th St	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,833 (+11%)	1mo	$569,990	$201	49
17733 Gold Saddle Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,368 (-7%)	8mo	$547,922	$231	47
631 Running Iron Ln	0.72mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,676 (+5%)	5mo	$514,900	$192	47
525 Black Bronco Rd	0.70mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,368 (-7%)	17mo	$551,121	$233	37
719 Satterwhite Farms Ln	0.71mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,904 (+14%)	13mo	$636,926	$219	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $147,461
• Equity at exit: $303,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $446,596
• Equity at exit: $654,514

Cash invested: $94,331 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,767
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$421 /mo · $5,053/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,947

Max offer price $269,019

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,224
• Closing costs: $10,107
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
139 Piney Pathway Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	2332	$1,971	$0.85	24d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $332,990 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $332,990 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $332,990 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $332,990 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $332,990 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $332,990 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $332,990 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $332,990 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $332,990 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $332,990 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $332,990 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $332,990 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $332,990 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    listed $332,990 Active 720-char remark

    Show marketing remark (720 chars)

    Welcome to The San Marcos, a two-story home perfect for any family! On the main floor, you can enjoy an open concept family and kitchen area that includes a spacious pantry. The primary suite is on the main floor along with a guest room and bathroom. Upstairs, there are three additional bedrooms as well as another bathroom and large loft space. Each bedroom has great storage space with large walk-in closets. Make it your own with The San Marcos' flexible floor plan. From additional garage space to a covered patio, you've got every opportunity to make The San Marcos your dream home. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,871
• − Property taxes: −$5,053
• − Insurance: −$1,684
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,259
• − Management: −$2,259
• − Depreciation: −$9,801
• Taxable loss: −$11,688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,805
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home in Magnolia, TX is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, and minor updates such as painting and landscaping would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $332,990 Zillow