729 N Commercial Ave · Superior, NE 68978

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,259 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1897 0.30 ac lot Est $165k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This three bedroom, one and a quarter bath home has great character! With a fully remodeled kitchen, car port, and updates throughout, you will find yourself at home here! Pre-Inspected! $5000.00 buyers credit given to purchaser for any repairs they want to do in basement, third bathroom being finished off laundry room.

Key facts

• Grand foyer
• Main-floor bedroom
• Full bathroom

Tags

• GRAND FOYER
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• CONVENIENT LAUNDRY ROOM
• MAIN-FLOOR BEDROOM
• SECONDARY STAIRCASE
• FULL BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#106 in NE, #4,283 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Superior Public Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #207 of 245 in NE (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Nuckolls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Nuckolls County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $130k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.80%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,907
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
729 N Commercial Ave	0.00mi	3/1.5	2,259 (0%)	2mo	$118,500	$52	97
715 N Commercial Ave	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,246 (-1%)	7mo	$144,500	$64	87
526 N National Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	2,152 (-5%)	4mo	$158,000	$73	80
1045 N Commercial Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	2,240 (-1%)	16mo	$52,500	$23	66
1450 Montana St	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,303 (+2%)	4mo	$296,750	$129	56
1440 Montana St	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,303 (+2%)	17mo	$355,000	$154	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $45,485
• Equity at exit: $84,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $128,869
• Equity at exit: $155,578

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68978

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,064/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,044

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-30
   status Back On Market
3. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
4. 2025-09-17
   listed $130,000 New
5. 2019-10-15
   soldstatus $57,000
6. 2019-09-03
   soldstatus $57,000
7. 2019-09-02
   soldstatus $57,000 321-char remark

   Show marketing remark (321 chars)

   This three bedroom, one and a quarter bath home has great character! With a fully remodeled kitchen, car port, and updates throughout, you will find yourself at home here! Pre-Inspected! $5000.00 buyers credit given to purchaser for any repairs they want to do in basement, third bathroom being finished off laundry room.

8. 2019-02-27
   listed $65,000 321-char remark

   Show marketing remark (321 chars)

   This three bedroom, one and a quarter bath home has great character! With a fully remodeled kitchen, car port, and updates throughout, you will find yourself at home here! Pre-Inspected! $5000.00 buyers credit given to purchaser for any repairs they want to do in basement, third bathroom being finished off laundry room.

9. 2015-05-18
   soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,064 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,249 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,185/yr (+$99/mo · 111.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,064
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$282
• After-tax cash flow: $1,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Superior Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3100029
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,509
• Composite: 36.62/100
• National rank: #9257
• State rank: #207 of 245 in NE

Livability — Superior

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #4283

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Superior, NE
• Population (ZIP): 2,382

Population outlook (Nuckolls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,977 people
• By 2030: 3,854 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 3,601 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 3,341 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 3,101 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 2,582 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Danish 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nuckolls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.6) · D 17.7% · R 81.3% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -63.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.6 2020: R+62.8 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+45.9 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.33%
• Current HPI: 154.5161
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+116.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2026-01-30 Relisted — GPRMLS
• 2025-12-11 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $130,000 GPRMLS
• 2019-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2019-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2019-09-02 Sold (MLS) $57,000 GPRMLS
• 2019-02-27 Listed $65,000 GPRMLS
• 2015-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,064 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.