304 Zion Ct · San Rafael, CA 94903

$347,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 15 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition 2,500 sqft lot Est $351k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious and inviting double-wide mobile home tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in desirable North San Rafael. This well-maintained residence offers approximately 1,400 sq ft of comfortable living space with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, featuring an open-concept living and dining area filled with natural light. The functional floor plan includes a generous primary suite, ample storage, and seamless indoor-outdoor flow for relaxed Marin living. Situated on a larger-than-average lot within the community, the property offers added outdoor space, privacy, and flexibility rarely found in the complex. Located in the highly sought-after Contempo Marin community, residents enjoy resort-style ameniti

Key facts

• Indoor-outdoor flow
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Open-concept living

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• GENEROUS PRIMARY SUITE
• INDOOR-OUTDOOR FLOW
• LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE LOT
• ADDED OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Located in Contempo Marin park; Land lease (yes) with monthly land lease amount of $1,806

Exterior

• Parking: Covered off-street parking for 2
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park (double wide); Updated/remodeled condition
• Construction: Manufacturer: Lancer (Lancer HM); Skirt: wood/unknown
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Porch; Carport awning; Fenced yard; Garden

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with double sinks, shower stall(s), and tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Great room; Kitchen/family combo
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $347k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $788 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $347k).
• Recommended offer: $342k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 1.7% in San Rafael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#358 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• San Rafael City High (urban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #126 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $341,795 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.74%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $351,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Zion Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$191	100
275 Carlsbad Ct	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$380,000	$264	89
290 Yosemite Rd	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	15mo	$340,000	$236	81
243 Teton Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	6mo	$180,000	$134	77
337 Acadia Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-6%)	10mo	$190,000	$141	74
37 Yosemite Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	9mo	$460,000	$295	70
239 Teton Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+12%)	2mo	$505,000	$312	69
352 Acadia Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	17mo	$375,000	$244	65
45 Yosemite Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,236 (-14%)	10mo	$409,000	$331	64
20 Yosemite Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	17mo	$280,000	$208	59
223 Olympic Way	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,236 (-14%)	10mo	$350,000	$283	58
210 Olympic Way	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	20mo	$267,000	$174	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-11,477
• Equity at exit: $51,739

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $32,865
• Equity at exit: $30,002

Cash invested: $97,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94903

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,034 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,820
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$434 /mo · $5,205/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$847
• Net cashflow: $788

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,035

Max offer price $347,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,750
• Closing costs: $10,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
255 Channing Way San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,195	$3.19	1d	1	0.21mi
300 Channing Way San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.0	722	$3,127	$4.33	1d	7	0.29mi
108 Professional Center Pkwy San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,195	$2.66	1d	1	0.29mi
95 Professional Center Pkwy San Rafael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$3,850	$3.70	1d	4	0.31mi
10 Professional Center Pkwy #26 San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.5	1107	$3,300	$2.98	24d	1	0.46mi
100 Marin Center Dr #64 San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.5	1112	$3,325	$2.99	5d	1	0.48mi
219 Mark Twain Ave San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1601	$5,850	$3.65	2d	1	0.51mi
267 Orris Ter San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1432	$5,000	$3.49	24d	1	0.73mi
2500 Deer Valley Rd San Rafael, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	932	$4,267	$4.58	1d	7	0.81mi
1001 Cresta Way San Rafael, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$4,681	$4.57	1d	21	0.87mi
20 North Ave San Rafael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	796	$3,625	$4.55	1d	3	0.94mi
41 Pine Tree Ct San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.5	1587	$5,500	$3.47	10d	1	0.97mi
53 Labrea Way San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1220	$5,800	$4.75	17d	1	0.97mi
124 Merrydale Rd San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,800	$2.95	12d	1	1.06mi
175 Nova Albion Way San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	704	$3,550	$5.04	1d	7	1.07mi
33 San Pablo Ave San Rafael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1581	$4,995	$3.16	1d	3	1.11mi
868 Las Pavadas Ave San Rafael, CA	4.0	2.0	1595	$5,500	$3.45	22d	1	1.33mi
648 Tanbark Ter San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1332	$5,250	$3.94	19d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   historical Contingent (Show)
3. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
4. 2026-05-07
   listed $347,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,437
• − Property taxes: −$5,205
• − Insurance: −$1,735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,872
• − Management: −$3,872
• − Depreciation: −$10,095
• Taxable income: $4,186
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,005
• After-tax cash flow: $8,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and updated mobile home offers a spacious and inviting living space with modern finishes and a functional floor plan. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances the home's curb appeal and can make it more attractive to potential buyers
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value for both resale and rental
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's appeal and value
• Resale Bathroom updates — Updating bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes can significantly increase the home's resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances the home's curb appeal and can make it more attractive to potential buyers ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value for both resale and rental ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's appeal and value ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Updating bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes can significantly increase the home's resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Rafael City High
• NCES district ID: 0635110
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,104
• Composite: 45.58/100
• National rank: #2594
• State rank: #126 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Rafael

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #12194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Rafael, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 71,922
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 30,615
• Household income: $142,083
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1414.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -893.58%
• Current HPI: 303.8086
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.62%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — BAREIS
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — BAREIS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $347,000 BAREIS