14815 Rain Tree Dr · Cove, TX 77523

$320,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,814 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2023 Fair condition 0.26 ac lot $176/sqft · at area comps Est $317k · at est. $61/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the highly sought after Barbers Hill ISD, this newer four bedroom, two bath home offers a rare combination of space, functionality, and location. Situated on one of the largest lots in the area, the property provides exceptional flexibility with room for a pool, workshop, outdoor kitchen, play space, or recreational parking. A double gate allows for convenient boat, trailer, or RV access. Inside, the thoughtfully designed floor plan features spacious bedrooms and a bright, open living area where the kitchen, dining, and living spaces seamlessly come together for everyday living and entertaining. Nestled in a quiet section of town, yet close to schools, shopping, and daily conveni

Key facts

• Double gate
• Low taxes
• Largest lots

Tags

• LARGEST LOTS
• DOUBLE GATE
• BOAT TRAILER RV ACCESS
• NEIGHBORHOOD PLAYGROUND
• LOW TAXES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Association fee paid annually
• HOA & community: Part of an association managed by Prestige Association Management; Annual association fee; Community playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Standard water, sewer, and power connections (details not specified)
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2023; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Built in 2023; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision setting; Pond on the lot; Smoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Quartz countertops
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12'10" x 14'); Bedroom on the first floor (12'10" x 9'11"); Bedroom on the first floor (11'8" x 10'); Bedroom on the first floor (11' x 10')
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Quartz counters; Window treatments / coverings; Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Ventilation (improved indoor air quality)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,927 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,802
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: 0.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14923 Spring Forest Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,829 (+1%)	2mo	$299,000	$163	90
14603 Rain Tree Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (+0%)	2mo	$308,000	$169	80
7106 Thomas James Ct	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-2%)	1mo	$297,690	$168	77
6714 Augusta Greens Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,790 (-1%)	2mo	$324,990	$182	72
218 San Marcos Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-5%)	1mo	$290,000	$168	69
6818 Bens Lndg	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,642 (-10%)	1mo	$269,800	$164	65
6922 Bens Lndg	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,642 (-10%)	1mo	$269,180	$164	64
510 Louis Ln	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,937 (+7%)	2mo	$303,440	$157	61
155 Horn Ct	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,052 (+13%)	2mo	$255,000	$124	58
6830 Bens Lndg	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-13%)	1mo	$274,870	$174	56
6707 Alejandro Pl	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,592 (-12%)	1mo	$299,100	$188	53
6703 Alejandro Pl	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,055 (+13%)	0mo	$341,580	$166	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-59,689
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-58,501
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,729 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$426 /mo · $5,116/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,910

Max offer price $294,791

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-52	+0% $-143	+5% $-233	+10% $-324
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-251	+0% $-143	+5% $-35	+10% $73
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-61	base $-143	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	3d	1	0.11mi
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	45d	1	0.17mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	21d	1	0.92mi
8411 Hannah Rd Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,195	$0.94	26d	1	1.10mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	26d	1	1.12mi
5006 Creekside Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,081	$1.34	26d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $320,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on marketlisting id $320,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $319,900 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-03
    price $320,000 1003-char remark
17. 2026-03-24
    listed $325,000 Active 1003-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,116 · $426/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,856 · $488/mo
• Expected delta: +$740/yr (+$62/mo · 14.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$5,116
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,620
• − Management: −$2,620
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$7,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,721
• After-tax cash flow: $9/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations, focusing on exterior repairs and updates to the kitchen and bathrooms to significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major fencing — Significant damage and rot
• Major exterior paint — Peeling and chipping

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both repair fencing — Improves safety and property value
• Both update kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizes the home and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
fencing · Significant damage and rot	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Peeling and chipping	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both repair fencing — Improves safety and property value ↑
• Both update kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizes the home and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $319,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $325,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+116.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,116 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.