254 Clover Way · Napa, CA 94558

$270,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · Manufactured · 70 Days on market

Built 1991 $168/sqft · at area comps Est $271k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the vibrant Napa Valley Sun 55+ Community! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home with an office or flexible room offers comfortable living with a wonderful opportunity to make it your own. The spacious kitchen provides plenty of room to create your ideal cooking and gathering space, flowing seamlessly into a bright and open living and dining area perfect for everyday living or entertaining guests. A full laundry room adds convenience with direct access to the covered carport. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat, complete with a soothing sunken tub and separate stall shower. Step outside and enjoy the expansive covered porch an ideal spot for morning coffee or unwinding in the evening along with a long covered carport and a large workshop shed, perfect for hobbies, storage, or projects. Located within a secure, gated community, residents enjoy resort-style amenities including sparkling pools, scenic walking trails, a putting green, bocce ball courts, and a variety of social clubs offering both activity and connection. This is a fantastic opportunity to own a home with great space, comfort, and potential in a community that truly embraces the best of 55+ living. Come experience the lifestyle that awaits at Napa Valley Sun!

Key facts

• Sparkling pools
• Long covered carport
• Large workshop shed

Tags

• EXPANSIVE COVERED PORCH
• LONG COVERED CARPORT
• LARGE WORKSHOP SHED
• SECURE GATED COMMUNITY
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• SPARKLING POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $915 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $254k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.0% in Napa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.52%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,933
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -0.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
232 Daisy Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,560 (-3%)	10mo	$310,000	$199	78
206 Daisy Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,500 (-7%)	14mo	$325,000	$217	75
231 Daisy Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,560 (-3%)	15mo	$238,000	$153	74
304 Ginger St	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	11mo	$130,000	$90	66
222 Daisy Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,722 (+7%)	18mo	$345,000	$200	64
130 Cabana Dr #130	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,628 (+1%)	16mo	$249,000	$153	62
63 Hacienda Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	2mo	$250,000	$174	61
34 Hacienda Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	10mo	$230,000	$160	56
13 Hacienda Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-15%)	6mo	$255,000	$186	52
93 Hacienda Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-10%)	15mo	$79,000	$55	49
113 Hacienda Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	18mo	$310,000	$215	48
207 Jane Way	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,650 (+3%)	20mo	$462,500	$280	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $5,106
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $43,121
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94558

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,163 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $671/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $915

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,005

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $270,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $270,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $270,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $270,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $270,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-05-03
    price $270,000 1266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1266 chars)

    Welcome to the vibrant Napa Valley Sun 55+ Community! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home with an office or flexible room offers comfortable living with a wonderful opportunity to make it your own. The spacious kitchen provides plenty of room to create your ideal cooking and gathering space, flowing seamlessly into a bright and open living and dining area perfect for everyday living or entertaining guests. A full laundry room adds convenience with direct access to the covered carport. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat, complete with a soothing sunken tub and separate stall shower. Step outside and enjoy the expansive covered porch an ideal spot for morning coffee or unwinding in the evening along with a long covered carport and a large workshop shed, perfect for hobbies, storage, or projects. Located within a secure, gated community, residents enjoy resort-style amenities including sparkling pools, scenic walking trails, a putting green, bocce ball courts, and a variety of social clubs offering both activity and connection. This is a fantastic opportunity to own a home with great space, comfort, and potential in a community that truly embraces the best of 55+ living. Come experience the lifestyle that awaits at Napa Valley Sun!

18. 2026-04-10
    listed $284,000 Active 1266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1266 chars)

    Welcome to the vibrant Napa Valley Sun 55+ Community! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home with an office or flexible room offers comfortable living with a wonderful opportunity to make it your own. The spacious kitchen provides plenty of room to create your ideal cooking and gathering space, flowing seamlessly into a bright and open living and dining area perfect for everyday living or entertaining guests. A full laundry room adds convenience with direct access to the covered carport. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat, complete with a soothing sunken tub and separate stall shower. Step outside and enjoy the expansive covered porch an ideal spot for morning coffee or unwinding in the evening along with a long covered carport and a large workshop shed, perfect for hobbies, storage, or projects. Located within a secure, gated community, residents enjoy resort-style amenities including sparkling pools, scenic walking trails, a putting green, bocce ball courts, and a variety of social clubs offering both activity and connection. This is a fantastic opportunity to own a home with great space, comfort, and potential in a community that truly embraces the best of 55+ living. Come experience the lifestyle that awaits at Napa Valley Sun!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $671 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,052 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,381/yr (+$115/mo · 205.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 62% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$671
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,037
• − Management: −$3,037
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable income: $6,886
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,653
• After-tax cash flow: $9,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Napa Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,007
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #7827
• State rank: #599 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Napa

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7435

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Napa, CA
• County: Napa County · 120,669 people
• City population: 91,371
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,657
• Household income: $113,269
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 15% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -842.94%
• Current HPI: 296.0661
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.50%
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $270,000 BAREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $284,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $671 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.