540 Broken Arrow Lane Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$109,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Be the first to live in this brand-new spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with brand new kitchen appliances. Enjoy a large laundry room with washer and dryer hookups, a walk-in pantry, a covered porch, a storage shed, and a 3-car driveway. Spacious bedrooms and a large dining room make this home perfect for everyday living.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• 3-car driveway
• Storage shed

Tags

• BRAND NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED PORCH
• STORAGE SHED
• 3-CAR DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $109,995

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan at 540 Broken Arrow Lane
• Construction: New construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1560

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Plan home (new construction)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $691 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1819 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,345 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.94%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $20,857
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $54,171
• Equity at exit: $9,510

Cash invested: $30,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1819
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $691

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $109,995

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $767	-5% $729	+0% $691	+5% $653	+10% $615
Rent	-10% $546	-5% $619	+0% $691	+5% $764	+10% $837
Rate	-1.0pp $747	-0.5pp $719	base $691	+0.5pp $663	+1.0pp $634

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,499
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
526 Harvest Moon Pkwy Kyle, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1624	$1,399	$0.86	3d	1	0.04mi
273 Tower Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,795	$1.43	18d	1	0.23mi
187 Rummel Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,795	$1.45	44d	1	0.31mi
140 Plum Path Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1945	$2,149	$1.10	3d	1	0.31mi
410 Tower Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1665	$1,795	$1.08	44d	1	0.32mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	12d	1	0.32mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	3d	1	0.32mi
205 Beech Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,825	$1.34	44d	1	0.35mi
205 Beech Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,795	$1.32	5d	1	0.35mi
510 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1359	$1,695	$1.25	44d	1	0.39mi
261 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1368	$1,849	$1.35	44d	1	0.40mi
120 Beech Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2058	$1,945	$0.95	18d	1	0.42mi
185 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,700	$1.16	15d	1	0.44mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	25d	1	0.47mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	5d	1	0.47mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	15d	1	0.47mi
270 Sheep Trail Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,785	$1.13	44d	1	0.47mi
149 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	15d	1	0.47mi
130 Peach Tree Pass Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2198	$1,900	$0.86	18d	1	0.50mi
106 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	18d	1	0.57mi
112 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	5d	1	0.58mi
1685 Twin Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,200	$1.26	44d	1	0.61mi
850 Bunton Reserve Blvd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,800	$1.62	25d	1	0.63mi
131 Connor Elkins Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2015	$2,000	$0.99	5d	1	0.65mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	44d	1	0.72mi
1579 Violet Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1426	$1,750	$1.23	25d	1	0.74mi
1477 Treeta Trl Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,759	$1.13	23d	1	0.76mi
1469 Breanna Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,650	$1.24	18d	1	0.77mi
1437 Treeta Trl Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,895	$1.50	44d	1	0.81mi
1180 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1822	$1,999	$1.10	5d	1	0.84mi
1628 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,180	$1.35	44d	1	0.84mi
1561 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	2.0	2.0	1195	$1,750	$1.46	4d	1	0.86mi
366 Silver Springs Bnd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,145	$1.12	4d	1	0.89mi
355 Evening Star Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	44d	1	0.89mi
195 Salt Springs Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,100	$1.16	18d	1	0.95mi
208 Discovery Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1893	$1,995	$1.05	25d	1	0.97mi
208 Discovery Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1893	$2,025	$1.07	44d	1	0.97mi
521 Bunton Reserve Blvd Kyle, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1870	$1,935	$1.03	2d	12	0.97mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,988	$1.35	17d	1	0.99mi
148 River Rise Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,800	$1.11	44d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,995 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,995 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,995 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,995 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,995 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,995 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,995 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,995 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 322-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $109,995 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,050
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,161
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,764
• − Management: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $6,960
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,670
• After-tax cash flow: $6,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand-new 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is move-in ready with modern appliances and a spacious layout. It offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Installing new flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves durability and appearance.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances add value and appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value to both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Installing new flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves durability and appearance. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances add value and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B