20489 W Grove Club Lake Rd · Whitehouse, TX 75791

$229,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1935 $241/sqft · 20% above area Est $337k · 32% under $75/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located at Grove Club Lake just south of Whitehouse, this property is perfect for a weekend home or a permanent residence! The home has three bedrooms and two baths. The kitchen is updated and flows to the living area for easy entertaining. Primary bedroom has en suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. Two guest rooms share a hall bath. Entertain outside on the large front porch, the deck, or around the fire pit! A short walk away is a one room boathouse with a kitchenette, half bath, and fantastic deck over the water. The deck is the perfect place to start your day with coffee while you watch the sun rise! The Grove Club Lake community offers a 40 acre lake with great fishing, 75 acres of hun

Key facts

• One room boathouse
• 75 acres of hunting
• Large front porch

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• ONE ROOM BOATHOUSE
• FANTASTIC DECK
• 40 ACRE LAKE
• 75 ACRES OF HUNTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Whitehouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#55 in TX, #2,180 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Whitehouse ISD (suburban): math 68% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #38 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,591 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,704
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -31.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-45,949
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-51,706
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75791

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $501/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,795

Max offer price $206,279

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-69	+0% $-134	+5% $-199	+10% $-538
Rent	-10% $-262	-5% $-198	+0% $-134	+5% $-69	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-75	base $-134	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,900 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-02-05
    price $229,900
18. 2025-05-15
    price $239,900
19. 2024-12-12
    listed $249,900 Active
20. 2024-11-19
    historical
21. 2024-09-16
    price $249,000
22. 2024-09-16
    price $249,000
23. 2024-08-27
    price $269,000
24. 2024-08-27
    price $269,000
25. 2024-07-25
    listed $275,000 Active
26. 2024-07-23
    listed $275,000 Active
27. 2024-02-29
    price $314,900
28. 2023-12-06
    price $329,900
29. 2023-12-06
    price $329,900
30. 2023-10-25
    listed $349,900 Active
31. 2023-10-24
    listed $349,900 Active
32. 2005-06-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $501 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,207 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,706/yr (+$309/mo · 739.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$501
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,561
• − Management: −$1,561
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$5,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,375
• After-tax cash flow: $-230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitehouse ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845600
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,060
• Composite: 55.18/100
• National rank: #1274
• State rank: #38 of 826 in TX

Livability — Whitehouse

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #2180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 15,786
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,786
• Household income: $92,107
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.16%
• Current HPI: 201.297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-34.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $229,900 GTAR
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $239,900 GTAR
• 2024-12-12 Listed $249,900 GTAR
• 2024-11-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $249,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $249,000 GTAR
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $269,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $269,000 GTAR
• 2024-07-25 Listed $275,000 GTAR
• 2024-07-23 Listed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-29 Price Changed $314,900 LAAR
• 2023-12-06 Price Changed $329,900 GTAR
• 2023-12-06 Price Changed $329,900 LAAR
• 2023-10-25 Listed $349,900 GTAR
• 2023-10-24 Listed $349,900 LAAR
• 2005-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $501 · +21.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.