2518 Lovely Dr · Sunrise Shores, TX 75758

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,348 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1996 0.85 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * FULLY UPDATED HOME * * * Beautifully Placed walking distance to Lake Palestine! This Haven by the lake will fulfill the tranquility you've been needing! This 1996 3 Bed / 2 bath Home is ready to give you peace of mind for years ahead, built when homes were built with quality not quantity but updated so it gives you that brand new, clean feel. Situated in Henderson County, The HUGE 3 Car carport, multipurpose room and storage room, encased in an extremely sturdy metal structure on concrete foundation along with an extra portable car port for some extra Curricular toys or even some yard machines. Speaking of yards, this luscious yard is mixed with grassy hills and shady trees and oversized for plenty of room to enjoy.

Key facts

• Storage room
• Multipurpose room
• Huge 3 car carport

Tags

• HUGE 3 CAR CARPORT
• MULTIPURPOSE ROOM
• STORAGE ROOM
• STURDY METAL STRUCTURE
• CONCRETE FOUNDATION
• EXTRA PORTABLE CAR PORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.1% in Sunrise Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brownsboro El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 429 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.65%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,897
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,364
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75758

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,530 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,372/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,324

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending 739-char remark

   Show marketing remark (739 chars)

   * * * FULLY UPDATED HOME * * * Beautifully Placed walking distance to Lake Palestine! This Haven by the lake will fulfill the tranquility you've been needing! This 1996 3 Bed / 2 bath Home is ready to give you peace of mind for years ahead, built when homes were built with quality not quantity but updated so it gives you that brand new, clean feel. Situated in Henderson County, The HUGE 3 Car carport, multipurpose room and storage room, encased in an extremely sturdy metal structure on concrete foundation along with an extra portable car port for some extra Curricular toys or even some yard machines. Speaking of yards, this luscious yard is mixed with grassy hills and shady trees and oversized for plenty of room to enjoy.

2. 2026-04-22
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (739 chars)

   * * * FULLY UPDATED HOME * * * Beautifully Placed walking distance to Lake Palestine! This Haven by the lake will fulfill the tranquility you've been needing! This 1996 3 Bed / 2 bath Home is ready to give you peace of mind for years ahead, built when homes were built with quality not quantity but updated so it gives you that brand new, clean feel. Situated in Henderson County, The HUGE 3 Car carport, multipurpose room and storage room, encased in an extremely sturdy metal structure on concrete foundation along with an extra portable car port for some extra Curricular toys or even some yard machines. Speaking of yards, this luscious yard is mixed with grassy hills and shady trees and oversized for plenty of room to enjoy.

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $149,900 Active 739-char remark

   Show marketing remark (739 chars)

   * * * FULLY UPDATED HOME * * * Beautifully Placed walking distance to Lake Palestine! This Haven by the lake will fulfill the tranquility you've been needing! This 1996 3 Bed / 2 bath Home is ready to give you peace of mind for years ahead, built when homes were built with quality not quantity but updated so it gives you that brand new, clean feel. Situated in Henderson County, The HUGE 3 Car carport, multipurpose room and storage room, encased in an extremely sturdy metal structure on concrete foundation along with an extra portable car port for some extra Curricular toys or even some yard machines. Speaking of yards, this luscious yard is mixed with grassy hills and shady trees and oversized for plenty of room to enjoy.

4. 2026-04-16
   listed $149,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (739 chars)

   * * * FULLY UPDATED HOME * * * Beautifully Placed walking distance to Lake Palestine! This Haven by the lake will fulfill the tranquility you've been needing! This 1996 3 Bed / 2 bath Home is ready to give you peace of mind for years ahead, built when homes were built with quality not quantity but updated so it gives you that brand new, clean feel. Situated in Henderson County, The HUGE 3 Car carport, multipurpose room and storage room, encased in an extremely sturdy metal structure on concrete foundation along with an extra portable car port for some extra Curricular toys or even some yard machines. Speaking of yards, this luscious yard is mixed with grassy hills and shady trees and oversized for plenty of room to enjoy.

5. 2026-01-07
   historical
6. 2025-12-10
   price $169,000
7. 2025-10-31
   price $174,900
8. 2025-10-02
   status Active
9. 2025-09-29
   historical Active Option Contract
10. 2025-09-12
    price $179,900
11. 2025-08-26
    listed $189,900 Active
12. 2025-01-03
    price $114,777
13. 2025-01-02
    price $117,477
14. 2024-12-20
    price $117,977
15. 2024-12-16
    price $119,879
16. 2024-12-05
    price $119,889
17. 2024-11-29
    price $119,899
18. 2024-11-22
    listed $119,900 Active
19. 2024-10-31
    historical
20. 2024-05-17
    listed $125,000 Active
21. 2024-05-10
    price $125,000
22. 2024-03-28
    listed $140,000 Active
23. 2023-10-11
    listed $154,900 Active
24. 2023-09-25
    soldstatus
25. 2007-03-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,372 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$372/yr (+$31/mo · 15.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,372
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,469
• − Management: −$1,469
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$453
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$109
• After-tax cash flow: $2,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sunrise Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,357

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.16%
• Current HPI: 192.0837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-04-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $149,900 GTAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-02 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-09-29 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $179,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-26 Listed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $114,777 NTREIS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $117,477 NTREIS
• 2024-12-20 Price Changed $117,977 NTREIS
• 2024-12-16 Price Changed $119,879 NTREIS
• 2024-12-05 Price Changed $119,889 NTREIS
• 2024-11-29 Price Changed $119,899 NTREIS
• 2024-11-22 Listed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2024-10-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-05-17 Listed $125,000 GTAR
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2024-03-28 Listed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-11 Listed $154,900 NTREIS
• 2023-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,372 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.