3140 W Osborn -- #8 · Phoenix, AZ 85017

$49,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 875 sqft · Manufactured · 72 Days on market

Built 1971 Fair condition 3,500 sqft lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FINANCING AVAILABLE! Good starter mobile home in a very central location. Rare slab parking available at property! Land lease is $750 per month and buyer must be approved with community manager prior to closing.

Key facts

• Rare slab parking
• Central location
• 3,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• CENTRAL LOCATION
• RARE SLAB PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size listed as 3,500 (source: owner)
• HOA & community: Trash included in association fee; Land lease of $750 per month

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: No notable lot features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Mini split cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Two master bathrooms; Full bath in master bedroom
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hook-ups/washer-dryer not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.5% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Alhambra High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #281 of 381 statewide, top 75%, 2,282 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 87 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.43%
• DSCR: 3.73
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $32,951
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $71,451
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85017

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,318 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	540	$1,300	$2.41	1d	52	0.53mi
3675 W Osborn Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	525	$899	$1.71	1d	6	0.57mi
4201 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	588	$1,399	$2.38	1d	3	0.68mi
4235 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0	750	$1,362	$1.82	1d	13	0.71mi
2602 W Monterey Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,745	$1.66	1d	1	0.74mi
3131 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	612	$1,349	$2.20	1d	2	0.92mi
4336 N 35th Ave Unit 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	822	$1,099	$1.34	1d	1	0.94mi
4336 N 35th Ave Unit 238 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	822	$1,099	$1.34	12d	1	0.95mi
4227 N 27th Ave Unit 1071 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	862	$1,449	$1.68	5d	1	0.97mi
4227 N 27th Ave Unit 2079 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	862	$1,424	$1.65	5d	1	0.97mi
4227 N 27th Ave Unit 2066 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	779	$1,374	$1.76	5d	1	0.97mi
4227 N 27th Ave Unit 2154 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	578	$1,154	$2.00	5d	1	0.97mi
4227 N 27th Ave Unit 3065 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	779	$1,349	$1.73	5d	1	0.97mi
4227 N 27th Ave Unit 3008 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	578	$1,129	$1.95	5d	1	0.97mi
4227 N 27th Ave Unit 3071 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	862	$1,399	$1.62	5d	1	0.97mi
4227 N 27th Ave Unit 1098 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	779	$1,399	$1.80	7d	1	0.97mi
4227 N 27th Ave Unit 1007 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	578	$1,179	$2.04	5d	1	0.97mi
2426 W Earll Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1037	$1,595	$1.54	7d	1	0.98mi
4326 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	520	$1,299	$2.50	1d	1	0.98mi
2429 W Avalon Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1037	$1,695	$1.63	24d	1	1.00mi
4227 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	578	$1,179	$2.04	1d	1	1.02mi
4227 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	779	$1,399	$1.80	3d	1	1.02mi
3001 N Black Cyn Hwy Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$899	$1.07	1d	2	1.02mi
3823 N 23rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	926	$1,499	$1.62	1d	1	1.10mi
4102 W Osborn Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,349	$1.61	1d	1	1.10mi
2524 W Glenrosa Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	665	$1,495	$2.25	1d	35	1.11mi
2414 W Devonshire Ave Apt 2 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	620	$995	$1.60	1d	1	1.16mi
2414 W Devonshire Ave Apt 4 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	620	$995	$1.60	21d	1	1.16mi
2414 W Devonshire Ave Apt 11 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	1d	1	1.16mi
2414 W Devonshire Ave Unit 09 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,275	$1.50	1d	1	1.17mi
2322 W Thomas Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	475	$853	$1.80	1d	4	1.17mi
2420 W Glenrosa Ave Unit 04 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	765	$995	$1.30	2d	1	1.23mi
2420 W Glenrosa Ave Unit 01 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	2d	1	1.23mi
2420 W Glenrosa Ave Unit 10 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	1d	1	1.23mi
2420 W Glenrosa Ave Unit 14 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	1d	1	1.23mi
2420 W Glenrosa Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	832	$1,325	$1.59	4d	4	1.23mi
2433 W Campbell Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	905	$1,147	$1.27	1d	1	1.27mi
4559 N 26th Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	952	$1,400	$1.47	1d	1	1.30mi
3807 W Hazelwood St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1121	$1,635	$1.46	1d	1	1.30mi
3839 W Hazelwood St Unit 5 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$950	$0.95	1d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $49,000
16. 2026-04-07
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,265
• − Management: −$1,265
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $8,132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,952
• After-tax cash flow: $6,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to its exterior and interior to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Severe weathering and peeling
• Major exterior paint — Significant wear and fading
• Major interior walls — Visible wear and tear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both paint interior walls — Improves aesthetics and value
• Both update bathrooms — Modernizes and increases value
• Both update kitchen — Modernizes and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Severe weathering and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Significant wear and fading	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Visible wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — Improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Both update bathrooms — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both update kitchen — Modernizes and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Union High School District (4286)
• NCES district ID: 0406330
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,055
• Composite: 10.63/100
• National rank: #9773
• State rank: #224 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,129
• Household income: $58,346
• Rent vs Own: 55.6% rent · 44.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1843.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 31% White 20% Black 10% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 40% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.21%
• Current HPI: 471.0211
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $49,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $55,000 ARMLS