15690 Sears Rd · Jacksonville, FL 32218

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,270 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1982 1.50 ac lot Est $254k · 21% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for acreage, a large workshop/garage, flexible living space? This unique property offers incredible value with a fenced 1.47-acre lot. Multiple living options! The main residence features a 1-bedroom, 1-bath single-wide mobile home with comfortable living space and three inviting porches, perfect for enjoying the peaceful surroundings. A separate living area with its own private entrance includes a living room/bedroom combination, kitchen and bathroom-ideal for a teenager, aging parent, live-in nurse, guest quarters. The oversized workshop/garage is a major value driver, providing plenty of room for equipment, room for all your toys, hobbies, storage, or a home-based business. No H

Key facts

• Separate living area
• Private entrance
• Fenced 1.47-acre lot

Tags

• FENCED 1.47-ACRE LOT
• MULTIPLE LIVING OPTIONS
• SEPARATE LIVING AREA
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• OVERSIZED WORKSHOP
• ROOM FOR EQUIPMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Property currently used for horses, livestock, and as a manufactured home

Exterior

• Parking: Detached secured garage; 4-car garage
• Security: 24-hour security; Closed-circuit cameras; Security lights
• Utilities: Private sewer (septic tank); Water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single wide mobile home; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Awning-covered and covered patios/porches (front, rear, side) with deck; Chain link full fencing; Shed(s) and workshop; Cleared lot on a cul-de-sac / dead-end street with few trees; Paved city street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Electric cooling; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Breakfast bar and breakfast nook; Built-in features; Butler pantry; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Open floorplan; Pantry; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,746 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.35%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15610 Dewanna Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+6%)	12mo	$270,000	$200	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-19,089
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,863
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32218

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 728
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $569/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,492

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $199,900 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-04-23
   price $190,214
7. 2026-04-23
   price $190,000
8. 2026-03-16
   price $214,995
9. 2026-01-28
   price $219,995
10. 2026-01-28
    price $21,995
11. 2025-12-17
    listed $224,973 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,659 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,090/yr (+$91/mo · 191.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$569
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $243
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$58
• After-tax cash flow: $3,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 72,905
• Household income: $69,638
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2289.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.73%
• Current HPI: 262.2329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.40%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $190,214 realMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $190,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $214,995 realMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $219,995 realMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $21,995 realMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $224,973 realMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $569 · +47.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.