23684 Fm 227 E · Kennard, TX 75847

$57,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1962 2.00 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Approximately 2-Acre, with 2-Bed Fixxer House, Sits on Plenty Road Frontage. Property features include Electricity, has City Water, and Septic System These utilities add significant value and convenience. With No restrictions the land offers endless possibilities. Enjoy the privacy and freedom of country living while maintaining easy road access. A rare opportunity to own usable acreage with flexibility and upside.

Key facts

• No restrictions
• Road frontage
• 2 acre land

Tags

• 2 ACRE LAND
• ROAD FRONTAGE
• CITY WATER
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• NO RESTRICTIONS
• USABLE ACREAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $57k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($892 rent vs $57k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,083 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Kennard ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #670 of 1,141 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($394 loan paydown + $652 appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,870 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.05%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $21,846
• Equity at exit: $19,888

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $56,487
• Equity at exit: $26,765

Cash invested: $15,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75847

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$299
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $487

Max offer price $57,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $336	+0% $320	+5% $304	+10% $288
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $285	+0% $320	+5% $355	+10% $390
Rate	-1.0pp $349	-0.5pp $334	base $320	+0.5pp $305	+1.0pp $290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,250
• Closing costs: $1,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-14
   price $57,000
3. 2026-03-13
   price $55,000
4. 2026-03-01
   price $60,000
5. 2026-02-24
   price $59,000
6. 2026-02-22
   price $60,000
7. 2026-02-16
   price $59,000
8. 2026-02-16
   price $60,000
9. 2026-02-10
   price $62,000
10. 2026-02-06
    price $60,000
11. 2026-02-02
    price $62,000
12. 2026-01-26
    price $63,000
13. 2026-01-16
    price $62,000
14. 2026-01-15
    price $60,000
15. 2026-01-15
    price $62,000
16. 2026-01-15
    price $60,000
17. 2026-01-15
    price $62,000
18. 2026-01-15
    price $62,500
19. 2026-01-15
    price $63,000
20. 2026-01-05
    price $65,000
21. 2025-12-15
    listed $69,000 Active
22. 2025-12-09
    soldstatus
23. 2017-03-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $748 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,043 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$296/yr (+$25/mo · 39.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,193
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$856
• − Management: −$856
• − Depreciation: −$1,658
• Taxable income: $3,109
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$746
• After-tax cash flow: $3,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kennard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825470
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,315
• Composite: 37.6/100
• National rank: #8840
• State rank: #670 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Kennard

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1083
• US rank: #19135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,441

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,269 people
• By 2030: 20,568 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 19,255 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 17,980 · -15.5%
• By 2075: 15,214 · -28.5%
• By 2100: 11,720 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 7% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.4) · D 22.1% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -55.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.4 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+44.3 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Current HPI: 87.4575
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $57,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $55,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $60,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $59,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $60,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $59,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $60,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $62,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $60,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $62,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $63,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $62,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $60,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $62,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $60,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $62,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $62,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $63,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $69,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $748 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.