2906 NW 22nd Ave · Cape Coral, FL 33993

$362,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · Land · 77 Days on market

Built 2026 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this stunning new construction home that perfectly blends modern design with comfort and functionality. Offering a total of 1,774 sq ft of living area, this beautifully crafted residence also includes a 422 sq ft two-car garage, a 79 sq ft covered entry, and a 105 sq ft covered lanai—ideal for enjoying Florida living year-round. This spacious home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, thoughtfully designed for both style and practicality. The master suite boasts a sleek, fully tiled walk-in shower with elegant glass doors, creating a spa-like retreat. The second bathroom includes a bathtub with tiled walls, perfect for relaxation or family convenience. Throughout the home, y

Key facts

• Covered lanai
• Covered entry
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• COVERED ENTRY
• COVERED LANAI
• FULLY TILED WALK-IN SHOWER
• BATHTUB WITH TILED WALLS
• DURABLE TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 covered spaces)
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable not available
• Home design: Single-story; New construction; Shingle roof; Faces east; Has a view; Waterfront with canal access; Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 125 (0.23 acres)
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction
• Exterior features: Room for pool; Manual shutters; Water feature; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Refrigerator with ice maker
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Impact glass windows; French doors; Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Dual sinks; Family/dining room; Living/dining room configuration; Shower only (separate shower); Walk-in closets; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $362k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-411 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (37.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Cape Coral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in FL, #3,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 2652 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $362k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,627 (37.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.07%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-91,718
• Equity at exit: $54,050

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-139,931
• Equity at exit: $31,342

Cash invested: $101,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33993

• Home prices YoY: -14.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 2652
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,276 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,901
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,086/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,796

Max offer price $289,944

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-206	-5% $-308	+0% $-411	+5% $-513	+10% $-616
Rent	-10% $-591	-5% $-501	+0% $-411	+5% $-321	+10% $-231
Rate	-1.0pp $-228	-0.5pp $-319	base $-411	+0.5pp $-505	+1.0pp $-600

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,625
• Closing costs: $10,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2824 NW 23rd Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,641	$1.12	22d	1	0.17mi
2837 NW 24th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$4,470	$3.48	24d	1	0.17mi
2838 NW 19th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,845	$1.12	24d	1	0.29mi
2630 NW 23rd Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,299	$1.52	24d	1	0.29mi
2901 NW 18th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,190	$1.41	14d	1	0.44mi
1907 NW 26th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	0.46mi
1823 NW 31st St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,950	$1.38	4d	1	0.48mi
1818 NW 27th Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$1,975	$1.19	4d	1	0.49mi
2538 NW 24th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1565	$1,950	$1.25	4d	1	0.52mi
2837 NW 27th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,691	$1.20	4d	1	0.58mi
2423 NW 19th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1829	$1,761	$0.96	11d	1	0.67mi
2507 NW 25th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1842	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	0.68mi
2511 NW 25th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1842	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	0.69mi
1719 NW 25th Ln Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,291	$1.25	4d	1	0.71mi
2152 NW 22nd Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,550	$1.80	12d	1	0.86mi
2329 NW 27th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,300	$1.31	16d	1	0.93mi
2800 NW 25th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	4d	1	0.93mi
2302 NW 27th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2136	$1,691	$0.79	22d	1	1.00mi
2812 NW 25th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1657	$1,950	$1.18	24d	1	1.00mi
2206 NW 17th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1779	$2,075	$1.17	24d	1	1.01mi
2105 NW 22nd Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,265	$1.24	15d	1	1.04mi
2124 NW 18th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,000	$1.29	20d	1	1.10mi
2928 NW 27th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1853	$1,999	$1.08	22d	1	1.10mi
2928 NW 27th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1853	$1,999	$1.08	24d	1	1.10mi
2001 NW 25th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1887	$2,500	$1.32	24d	1	1.20mi
2532 NW 31st Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,400	$1.37	24d	1	1.20mi
1903 NW 22nd Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,200	$1.11	24d	1	1.25mi
1821 NW 23rd Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1876	$1,856	$0.99	14d	1	1.31mi
2014 NW 16th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1712	$1,701	$0.99	14d	1	1.33mi
2216 NW 18th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,816	$1.17	15d	1	1.37mi
1820 NW 19th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	2340	$2,500	$1.07	12d	1	1.39mi
1823 NW 19th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1712	$1,850	$1.08	24d	1	1.40mi
1431 NW 20th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2052	$1,775	$0.87	20d	1	1.41mi
1427 NW 20th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,895	$1.17	16d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $362,500 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $362,500 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $362,500 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $362,500 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $367,500 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $367,500 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $367,500 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $367,500 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $367,500 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $367,500 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $367,500 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-05-23
    price $367,500
13. 2026-04-03
    price $369,500
14. 2026-04-01
    listed $380,000 Active
15. 2024-10-22
    soldstatus $139,900
16. 2022-04-22
    soldstatus $41,000 Closed
17. 2022-04-22
    soldstatus $41,000
18. 2022-04-16
    status Pending
19. 2022-03-21
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2022-02-17
    listed $45,000 Active
21. 2022-01-26
    status Active
22. 2021-12-27
    historical
23. 2021-11-25
    status Pending
24. 2021-06-29
    listed $40,000 Active
25. 2004-03-16
    soldstatus $18,500
26. 1982-05-01
    soldstatus $7,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,086 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,009 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,923/yr (+$160/mo · 177.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,306
• − Property taxes: −$1,086
• − Insurance: −$2,610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,185
• − Management: −$2,185
• − Depreciation: −$10,545
• Taxable loss: −$11,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,785
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cape Coral

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #3098

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Coral, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 217,388
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,580
• Household income: $90,577
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 286.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 21% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 17% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.34%
• Current HPI: 337.0575
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.51%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4551.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $367,500 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $369,500 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $380,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records
• 2022-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-22 Sold (MLS) $41,000 MARMLS
• 2022-04-16 Pending — MARMLS
• 2022-03-21 Contingent — MARMLS
• 2022-02-17 Listed $45,000 MARMLS
• 2022-01-26 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2021-12-27 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2021-11-25 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2021-06-29 Listed $40,000 FORTMLS
• 2004-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records
• 1982-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,086 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.