400 Sulphur Bank #102 · Clearlake Oaks, CA 95423

$50,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Land · 144 Days on market

Built 2002 44 ac lot $52/sqft · 43% below area Est $88k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Value: Friendly 55 and up Senior Park. 2 Bedroom + den + 2 Baths. Laundry off kitchen. Back yard is fenced and has a storage shed. Covered front deck is so inviting. Selling home AS-IS

Key facts

• Laundry off kitchen
• Storage shed
• Covered front deck

Tags

• LAUNDRY OFF KITCHEN
• BACK YARD FENCED
• STORAGE SHED
• COVERED FRONT DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.6% vs local median 4.3% in Clearlake Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#569 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.53%
• DSCR: 5.03
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,684
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -42.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.23×
• Total profit: $59,190
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.88×
• Total profit: $138,253
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95423

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $661/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $1,056

Break-even live

Break-even rent $428

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,085	-5% $1,070	+0% $1,056	+5% $1,042	+10% $1,028
Rent	-10% $917	-5% $986	+0% $1,056	+5% $1,126	+10% $1,196
Rate	-1.0pp $1,081	-0.5pp $1,069	base $1,056	+0.5pp $1,043	+1.0pp $1,030

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $50,000 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   status $50,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active Under Contract 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active Under Contract 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $50,000 Active Under Contract 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active Under Contract 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active Under Contract 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $50,000 Active Under Contract 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Active Under Contract 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $50,000 Active Under Contract 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 126 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 125 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $50,000 Active 124 DOM
18. 2026-01-26
    listed $50,000 Active 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    Great Value: Friendly 55 and up Senior Park. 2 Bedroom + den + 2 Baths. Laundry off kitchen. Back yard is fenced and has a storage shed. Covered front deck is so inviting. Selling home AS-IS

19. 2025-08-22
    historical
20. 2025-06-19
    price $50,000
21. 2024-11-07
    price $55,000
22. 2024-07-14
    price $59,000
23. 2024-07-08
    status Active
24. 2024-06-19
    historical Active Under Contract
25. 2023-12-11
    listed $65,000 Active
26. 2023-12-06
    historical
27. 2023-10-13
    price $79,000
28. 2023-08-10
    price $99,000
29. 2023-05-08
    listed $105,000 Active
30. 2017-07-17
    historical
31. 2017-07-15
    status Active
32. 2017-07-11
    historical Active Under Contract
33. 2017-06-15
    listed $29,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $661 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $661 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$661
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $12,625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,030
• After-tax cash flow: $9,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clearlake Oaks

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #18675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake Oaks, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,432

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.32%
• Current HPI: 178.9812
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+67.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listed $50,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $50,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-07 Price Changed $55,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-14 Price Changed $59,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-08 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-06-19 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-12-11 Listed $65,000 CRMLS
• 2023-12-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-10-13 Price Changed $79,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-10 Price Changed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2023-05-08 Listed $105,000 CRMLS
• 2017-07-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2017-07-15 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2017-07-11 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2017-06-15 Listed $29,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2018): $661 · +84.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.