Grapeland Plan · Montgomery, TX 77356

$537,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,877 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Cash flow +0.4/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Build your future on a foundation of timeless comforts and top-quality construction with The Grapeland floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Walden Creek. The chef's kitchen provides a dine-up island and an out-of-sight storage and prep space. Open sight lines and gentle sunlight allow your personal style to shine in the impressive family and dining spaces overlooking the covered porch and backyard. Leave the outside world behind and lavish in your Owner's Retreat, featuring a superb bathroom and walk-in closet. A guest room and two junior bedrooms make it easy for this home to accommodate a variety of unique personalities.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Out-of-sight storage
• Superb bathroom

Tags

• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• DINE-UP ISLAND
• OUT-OF-SIGHT STORAGE
• IMPRESSIVE FAMILY SPACES
• COVERED PORCH
• SUPERB BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $537,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $804,862.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $538k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-42k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (45.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (52.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (52.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.0% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1575 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($473k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,148 (52.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.32% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.80%
• DSCR: 0.16
• GRM: 26.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $804,862
• List price: $537,990
• Delta: -33.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18848 Harbor Side Blvd	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,751 (-4%)	5mo	$824,900	$300	75
73 La Jolla Cir	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,935 (+2%)	5mo	$549,900	$187	60
18989 Harbor Side Blvd	0.58mi	4/3.5	3,006 (+4%)	13mo	$738,500	$246	54
18854 Lake Terrace Dr	0.74mi	4/4.0	2,584 (-10%)	2mo	$579,900	$224	44
11675 Renaissance Dr	0.70mi	4/4.0	3,100 (+8%)	18mo	$959,000	$309	38
18904 Mystic Pt	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,043 (+6%)	18mo	$649,000	$213	34
11584 Grandview Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	3,233 (+12%)	13mo	$839,999	$260	34
212 La Costa Dr	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,638 (-8%)	18mo	$425,000	$161	30
19005 Harbor Side Blvd	0.66mi	4/4.5	3,272 (+14%)	18mo	$634,000	$194	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -57.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-362,795
• Equity at exit: $120,008

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.82×
• Total profit: $-634,444
• Equity at exit: $69,590

Cash invested: $225,361 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 86 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 51.6 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $556,400 ($193/sqft)
• Median days on market: 30 d
• This list price: 45% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +45.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1575
• Price-to-rent: 17.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,221
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,006 /mo · $12,073/yr
• Insurance: −$335
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-3,531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,041

Max offer price $293,958

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,975	-5% $-3,253	+0% $-3,531	+5% $-3,809	+10% $-4,087
Rent	-10% $-3,734	-5% $-3,632	+0% $-3,531	+5% $-3,429	+10% $-3,328
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,125	-0.5pp $-3,326	base $-3,531	+0.5pp $-3,739	+1.0pp $-3,951

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $201,216
• Closing costs: $24,146
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9913 Crescent Cove Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1805	$2,399	$1.33	0d	29	0.42mi
47 Presidio Rd Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	2059	$2,300	$1.12	108d	1	1.04mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18515 Scarlet Paintbrush Dr, Montgomery TX 77356
• Financial info: List price $557,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 garage / parking spaces
• Home design: New construction single-family planGrapeland planActive listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,877

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction plan)Plan name: Grapeland

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $537,990 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $537,990 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $537,990 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $537,990 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $537,990 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $537,990 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $537,990 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $537,990 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $537,990 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $537,990 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $537,990 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $537,990 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $537,990 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-09-06
    price $537,990 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $542,990 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $542,990 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $542,990 Active 102 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $542,990 Active 100 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $542,990 Active 98 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $542,990 Active 97 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $542,990 Active 96 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $542,990 Active 94 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $542,990 Active 93 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $542,990 Active 92 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $542,990 Active 91 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $542,990 Active 90 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $542,990 Active 89 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $542,990 Active 88 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $542,990 Active 87 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $542,990 Active 86 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $542,990 Active 85 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $542,990 Active 84 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $542,990 Active 83 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $542,990 Active 82 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $542,990 Active 81 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $542,990 Active 80 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $542,990 Active 79 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $542,990 Active 78 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $542,990 Active 77 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $542,990 Active 75 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $542,990 Active 74 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $542,990 Active 73 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $542,990 Active 72 DOM
44. 2026-08-01
    price $542,990 Active 69 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $557,990 Active 69 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $557,990 Active 67 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $557,990 Active 66 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $557,990 Active 62 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $557,990 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $557,990 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$45,085
• − Property taxes: −$12,073
• − Insurance: −$4,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,469
• − Management: −$2,469
• − Depreciation: −$23,414
• Taxable loss: −$58,676
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14,082
• After-tax cash flow: $-28,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,385–$43,155 screening

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a clean interior. The property is move-in ready with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stewart Creek El C TX #686/4,322 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Montgomery J H B+ TX #145/1,662 Nat'l #1,667/14,009 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18515 Scarlet Paintbrush Dr, Montgomery TX 77356
• Financial info: List price $557,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 garage / parking spaces
• Home design: New construction single-family planGrapeland planActive listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,877

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction plan)Plan name: Grapeland