9116 Alden Dr · Locust Grove, GA 30248

$329,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,574 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 2016 871 sqft lot $128/sqft · 9% below area Est $362k · 9% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 9116 Alden Drive - a beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located in a quiet and well-kept community in Locust Grove. Step inside to a welcoming foyer that opens to a separate formal dining room, perfect for gatherings and holiday dinners. The open-concept kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring a large waterfall island, walk-in pantry, stainless steel appliances, and an eat-in breakfast area that flows seamlessly into the spacious family room. Enjoy a cozy evening by the fireplace or entertain with ease in this inviting, light-filled space. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite offers the space and comfort you've been looking for - complete with a large walk-in closet and private ensuite bath. Three additional secondary bedrooms are conveniently located on the upper level and share a well-appointed full bathroom. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking a large, fenced-in backyard - ideal for outdoor dining, play, pets, or simply relaxing in a private setting. Enjoy the neighborhood amenities such as green space and a swimming pool. Conveniently located near dining, shopping, and I-75, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and accessibility. Buyers: This home also has a 3.25% Assumable FHA Mortgages. These rates are way below today's market rates.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Open-concept kitchen
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE WATERFALL ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• EAT-IN BREAKFAST AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-217 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.1% in Locust Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#315 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,714 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.81%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,576
• List price: $329,900
• Delta: -8.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9013 Aldbury Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,375 (-8%)	10mo	$320,000	$135	72
9021 Aldbury Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,256 (-12%)	9mo	$320,000	$142	67
9005 Aldbury Dr	0.11mi	4/3.5	2,232 (-13%)	6mo	$313,500	$140	64
9102 Alden Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,240 (-13%)	14mo	$313,000	$140	62
510 Curry Ridge Ct	0.60mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,659 (+3%)	10mo	$335,000	$126	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-69,419
• Equity at exit: $49,189

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-86,956
• Equity at exit: $28,524

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,667 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,077/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,941

Max offer price $291,644

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Curry Ridge Ct Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.0	2190	$2,230	$1.02	5d	1	0.63mi
2001 Reserve Pkwy McDonough, GA	5.0	3.0	2454	$2,660	$1.08	44d	1	1.23mi
108 Rendition Dr McDonough, GA	5.0	3.0	3200	$3,100	$0.97	19d	1	1.40mi
377 Lossie Ln McDonough, GA	3.0	2.5	1992	$1,999	$1.00	4d	1	1.45mi
136 Rendition Dr McDonough, GA	3.0	2.5	3002	$2,500	$0.83	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,900 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,900 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,900 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,900 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,900 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,900 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,900 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,900 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $329,900 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,900 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,900 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,900 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,900 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    price $329,900 1325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1349 chars)

    Welcome to 9116 Alden Drive — a beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located in a quiet and well-kept community in Locust Grove. Step inside to a welcoming foyer that opens to a separate formal dining room, perfect for gatherings and holiday dinners. The open-concept kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring a large waterfall island, walk-in pantry, stainless steel appliances, and an eat-in breakfast area that flows seamlessly into the spacious family room. Enjoy a cozy evening by the fireplace or entertain with ease in this inviting, light-filled space. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite offers the space and comfort you’ve been looking for — complete with a large walk-in closet and private ensuite bath. Three additional secondary bedrooms are conveniently located on the upper level and share a well-appointed full bathroom. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking a large, fenced-in backyard — ideal for outdoor dining, play, pets, or simply relaxing in a private setting. Enjoy the neighborhood amenities such as green space and a swimming pool. Conveniently located near dining, shopping, and I-75, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and accessibility. Buyers: This home also has a 3.25% Assumable FHA Mortgages. These rates are way below today's market rates.

15. 2026-04-03
    price $329,900 1349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1349 chars)

    Welcome to 9116 Alden Drive — a beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located in a quiet and well-kept community in Locust Grove. Step inside to a welcoming foyer that opens to a separate formal dining room, perfect for gatherings and holiday dinners. The open-concept kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring a large waterfall island, walk-in pantry, stainless steel appliances, and an eat-in breakfast area that flows seamlessly into the spacious family room. Enjoy a cozy evening by the fireplace or entertain with ease in this inviting, light-filled space. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite offers the space and comfort you’ve been looking for — complete with a large walk-in closet and private ensuite bath. Three additional secondary bedrooms are conveniently located on the upper level and share a well-appointed full bathroom. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking a large, fenced-in backyard — ideal for outdoor dining, play, pets, or simply relaxing in a private setting. Enjoy the neighborhood amenities such as green space and a swimming pool. Conveniently located near dining, shopping, and I-75, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and accessibility. Buyers: This home also has a 3.25% Assumable FHA Mortgages. These rates are way below today's market rates.

16. 2026-01-22
    listed $335,000 New 1325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1349 chars)

    Welcome to 9116 Alden Drive — a beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located in a quiet and well-kept community in Locust Grove. Step inside to a welcoming foyer that opens to a separate formal dining room, perfect for gatherings and holiday dinners. The open-concept kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring a large waterfall island, walk-in pantry, stainless steel appliances, and an eat-in breakfast area that flows seamlessly into the spacious family room. Enjoy a cozy evening by the fireplace or entertain with ease in this inviting, light-filled space. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite offers the space and comfort you’ve been looking for — complete with a large walk-in closet and private ensuite bath. Three additional secondary bedrooms are conveniently located on the upper level and share a well-appointed full bathroom. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking a large, fenced-in backyard — ideal for outdoor dining, play, pets, or simply relaxing in a private setting. Enjoy the neighborhood amenities such as green space and a swimming pool. Conveniently located near dining, shopping, and I-75, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and accessibility. Buyers: This home also has a 3.25% Assumable FHA Mortgages. These rates are way below today's market rates.

17. 2026-01-22
    listed $335,000 Active 1349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1349 chars)

    Welcome to 9116 Alden Drive — a beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located in a quiet and well-kept community in Locust Grove. Step inside to a welcoming foyer that opens to a separate formal dining room, perfect for gatherings and holiday dinners. The open-concept kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring a large waterfall island, walk-in pantry, stainless steel appliances, and an eat-in breakfast area that flows seamlessly into the spacious family room. Enjoy a cozy evening by the fireplace or entertain with ease in this inviting, light-filled space. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite offers the space and comfort you’ve been looking for — complete with a large walk-in closet and private ensuite bath. Three additional secondary bedrooms are conveniently located on the upper level and share a well-appointed full bathroom. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking a large, fenced-in backyard — ideal for outdoor dining, play, pets, or simply relaxing in a private setting. Enjoy the neighborhood amenities such as green space and a swimming pool. Conveniently located near dining, shopping, and I-75, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and accessibility. Buyers: This home also has a 3.25% Assumable FHA Mortgages. These rates are way below today's market rates.

18. 2026-01-21
    historical
19. 2026-01-21
    historical
20. 2025-11-07
    listed $345,000 Active
21. 2025-11-07
    listed $345,000 New
22. 2025-11-06
    historical
23. 2025-11-06
    historical
24. 2021-07-21
    soldstatus $310,000
25. 2021-07-19
    soldstatus $310,000 Sold
26. 2021-06-20
    status Under Contract
27. 2021-06-12
    listed $305,000 New
28. 2015-10-26
    soldstatus $198,000
29. 2015-04-16
    soldstatus $420,000
30. 2010-09-14
    soldstatus $220,145

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,077 · $423/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,077 · $423/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$5,077
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,560
• − Management: −$2,560
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$8,315
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,996
• After-tax cash flow: $-603/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Locust Grove

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #17034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 36,038
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+49.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $329,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $329,900 FMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $335,000 FMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $335,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $345,000 FMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $345,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-06 Coming Soon — GAMLS
• 2025-11-06 Coming Soon — FMLS
• 2021-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-19 Sold (MLS) $310,000 GAMLS
• 2021-06-20 Pending — GAMLS
• 2021-06-12 Listed $305,000 GAMLS
• 2015-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $198,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $420,000 Public Records
• 2010-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $220,145 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,077 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.