10407 Twin Oak Dr · Oak Ridge North, TX 77385

$275,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,772 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1997 0.42 ac lot Est $317k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully updated one-story in the desirable Lake Chateau Woods community! Offering 3 bedrooms, 3 full baths, and a private home office, this thoughtfully designed home features manufactured wood and tile flooring throughout with no carpet. The updated kitchen showcases granite countertops, abundant cabinetry, and a functional layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious living areas flow seamlessly to a peaceful backyard retreat complete with a large deck, ideal for enjoying your morning coffee or relaxing evenings. A circle driveway provides ample parking and added curb appeal. Additional updates include a 2023 A/C and furnace for peace of mind.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Updated kitchen
• Tile flooring

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• MANUFACTURED WOOD FLOORING
• TILE FLOORING
• LARGE DECK
• CIRCLE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Garage with garage door opener; Circular driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1997; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Fenced backyard; Corner lot; Subdivision lot; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Engineered hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Double vanities (where applicable)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen and family room combo; Pantry; Double vanity; Tub with shower; Vanity; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Reverse osmosis water system; Gas fireplace with gas log
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Oak Ridge North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#8 in TX, #708 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities D+.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Ridge H S (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,672 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,907 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,188
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1310 Beech Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,747 (-1%)	8mo	$274,999	$157	84
10507 Twin Oak Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,702 (-4%)	6mo	$264,900	$156	83
10348 Stone Gate Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,820 (+3%)	3mo	$279,500	$154	80
1016 Chateau Woods Parkway Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,763 (-0%)	2mo	$445,000	$252	78
1452 Glenoaks Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,646 (-7%)	7mo	$294,900	$179	74
1619 Ashway St	0.44mi	3/3.0	1,856 (+5%)	2mo	$349,900	$189	68
10732 Twin Oaks Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-12%)	7mo	$250,000	$161	61
1011 Chateau Woods Parkway Dr	0.33mi	3/3.0	1,988 (+12%)	4mo	$495,000	$249	59
10921 Oriole Pl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-13%)	1mo	$279,999	$182	59
10208 Jewel Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,937 (+9%)	6mo	$275,000	$142	58
603 Springwood Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,686 (-5%)	2mo	$287,000	$170	56
619 Pinewood Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-13%)	0mo	$310,000	$201	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-51,800
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-48,530
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77385

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,239 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,497/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,424

Max offer price $249,259

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10648 Fussel Rd Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,300	$1.35	43d	1	0.75mi
32331 Summer Park Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1796	$2,000	$1.11	22d	1	1.39mi
2519 Braley Park Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$2,049	$1.14	14d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,497 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,536/yr (+$128/mo · 43.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,497
• − Insurance: −$2,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,150
• − Management: −$2,150
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,561
• After-tax cash flow: $-188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Ridge North

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #708

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute B- Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,156
• Household income: $117,118
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 471.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.09%
• Current HPI: 239.9434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+22.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2020-03-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-10-31 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-10-31 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2018-01-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-01-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-08-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-07-18 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 1997-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,497 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.