12716 S Chester Rd · Chester, VA 23831

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1982 0.45 ac lot Est $241k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this tastefully updated home in Chester! Situated on almost half an acre, this three bedroom turnkey home has so much to offer and is a must-see! Featuring a spacious Family/Living Room that is very welcoming with a brick Fireplace, an abundance of natural light, ceiling fan and new flooring. Enter the stunning Kitchen with so many updates! All new appliances, flooring, gorgeous back splash and custom decorative touches. Other interior features are neutral interior paint, stylish fixtures & hardware and updated bath! The exterior has been repainted!! Enjoy the expansive back deck which is perfect for entertaining or relaxing after a long day. This lovely HUGE back yard borders a nature barrier and is fenced, which gives the new buyer more privacy! Come see this one today!!

Key facts

• Renovated bathroom
• Spacious backyard
• Park-like lot

Tags

• PARK-LIKE LOT
• RENOVATED BATHROOM
• NEW ROOF
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• LARGE REAR DECK
• ATTACHED STORAGE AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; No garage; Unpaved drive
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction with drywall and hardboard; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; Built (actual year recorded)
• Exterior features: Deck; Stoop; Outdoor lighting; Storage shed; Shed(s); Unpaved driveway; Fenced yard (mixed, privacy)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Stove/Range; Range hood
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Additional main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate; Partially carpeted
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Main level primary; Masonry wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.6% in Chester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#170 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $196k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,790 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.49%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,488
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12220 Harrowgate Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,131 (+10%)	7mo	$265,000	$234	50
4342 Lafon St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (+10%)	17mo	$250,000	$220	36
12733 Richmond St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,128 (+9%)	22mo	$275,000	$244	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-26,779
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-16,294
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23831

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,027/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,826

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11701 Chester Village Dr Chester, VA	2.0	1.0	958	$1,758	$1.83	1d	5	1.05mi
11625 Chester Station Dr Chester, VA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,100	$1.46	23d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 687-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $225,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,027 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,027 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,027
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,557
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$374
• After-tax cash flow: $2,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chester

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #5369

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chester, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 54,827
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 39,529
• Household income: $95,750
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 952.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.93%
• Current HPI: 252.2448
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+257.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $225,000 CVRMLS
• 2020-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $195,500 Public Records
• 2020-05-05 Sold (MLS) $195,500 CVRMLS
• 2020-04-06 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2020-04-04 Listed $189,999 CVRMLS
• 2012-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-15 Sold (MLS) $124,000 CVRMLS
• 2012-07-12 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2012-06-05 Listed $125,000 CVRMLS
• 2005-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $129,950 Public Records
• 2003-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-10 Sold (MLS) $105,000 CVRMLS
• 2003-10-10 Sold (MLS) $105,000 CVRMLS
• 2003-08-27 Listed $105,000 CVRMLS
• 2003-08-27 Listed $105,000 CVRMLS
• 2002-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $94,950 Public Records
• 2002-10-28 Sold (MLS) $94,950 CVRMLS
• 2002-10-02 Listed $94,950 CVRMLS
• 2002-10-02 Listed $94,950 CVRMLS
• 1992-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records
• 1989-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,027 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.