819 N 16th St · Lamesa, TX 79331

$88,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1950 8,407 sqft lot $80/sqft · 83% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a solid brick home on a large corner lot. It has a metal roof, 1 car garage, metal carport, storage and a large back yard. It is a 2 bedroom 1 bath and there is 1096 sq. ft. of living area. It has central heat and air. The rooms are nice size but could use some TLC. This is a great starter home or a fixer upper for an investment property.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Large corner lot
• Central heat and air

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• LARGE CORNER LOT
• METAL ROOF
• METAL CARPORT
• LARGE BACK YARD
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#445 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Lamesa ISD (town): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #755 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,360 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.77%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,208
• List price: $88,000
• Delta: 82.54%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $23,398
• Equity at exit: $13,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $68,942
• Equity at exit: $7,609

Cash invested: $24,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79331

• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,527 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,410/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $88,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,000
• Closing costs: $2,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-14
   listed $88,000 Active 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   This is a solid brick home on a large corner lot. It has a metal roof, 1 car garage, metal carport, storage and a large back yard. It is a 2 bedroom 1 bath and there is 1096 sq. ft. of living area. It has central heat and air. The rooms are nice size but could use some TLC. This is a great starter home or a fixer upper for an investment property.

2. 2005-08-23
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,410 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$201/yr (+$17/mo · 14.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,929
• − Property taxes: −$1,410
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,466
• − Management: −$1,466
• − Depreciation: −$2,560
• Taxable income: $6,055
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,453
• After-tax cash flow: $5,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamesa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826610
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,346
• Composite: 18.85/100
• National rank: #8862
• State rank: #755 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lamesa

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #445
• US rank: #9067

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lamesa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,751

Population outlook (Dawson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,411 people
• By 2030: 12,268 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 12,260 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 12,117 · -2.4%
• By 2075: 11,504 · -7.3%
• By 2100: 10,176 · -18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 34% Two or more races 24% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Polish 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dawson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.0% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+50.6 2012: R+43.2 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.06%
• Current HPI: 135.9298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $88,000 LARMLS
• 2005-08-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,410 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.