Windrow Plan · Princeton, TX 75407

$158,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,033 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the backyard space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BACKYARD

🏗️ New construction. The $158,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $247,473.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 436 students, 56% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1749 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,919 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.91%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,473
• List price: $158,999
• Delta: -35.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Lemongrass	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,039 (+1%)	10mo	$187,900	$181	64
5509 Timber Point Dr	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,039 (+1%)	6mo	$199,000	$192	64
115 Lemongrass Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,039 (+1%)	14mo	$215,000	$207	63
318 Moray Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,047 (+1%)	9mo	$210,000	$201	53
5008 Waterway Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	928 (-10%)	24mo	$316,000	$341	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-56,509
• Equity at exit: $36,899

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-84,994
• Equity at exit: $21,397

Cash invested: $69,293 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 27.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $225,000 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 52 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +30.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1749
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,952 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,298
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$309 /mo · $3,712/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,165

Max offer price $223,124

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3	-5% $-83	+0% $-168	+5% $-254	+10% $-339
Rent	-10% $-322	-5% $-245	+0% $-168	+5% $-91	+10% $-14
Rate	-1.0pp $-44	-0.5pp $-105	base $-168	+0.5pp $-232	+1.0pp $-298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,868
• Closing costs: $7,424
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Wyndemere Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$2,100	$1.46	93d	1	0.34mi
5504 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,999	$1.35	53d	1	0.38mi
136 Honeysuckle St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,700	$1.34	93d	1	0.39mi
119 Cypress Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,750	$1.39	93d	1	0.44mi
5644 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,800	$1.43	93d	1	0.47mi
5708 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,925	$1.34	93d	1	0.50mi
5733 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,720	$1.36	93d	1	0.52mi
5720 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1500	$2,205	$1.47	54d	1	0.52mi
5724 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,050	$1.62	73d	1	0.53mi
5817 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,624	$1.15	70d	1	0.55mi
5825 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,780	$1.24	93d	1	0.56mi
5620 Timber Point Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,750	$1.22	32d	1	0.56mi
5836 Timber Point Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,875	$1.30	68d	1	0.63mi
303 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,849	$1.25	2d	1	0.65mi
303 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,849	$1.25	1d	1	0.65mi
320 Dewberry St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,695	$1.14	48d	1	0.67mi
320 Dewberry St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,745	$1.18	62d	1	0.67mi
228 Rubylace Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,700	$1.18	93d	1	0.67mi
330 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,699	$1.15	48d	1	0.69mi
5105 Greywing Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,795	$1.25	43d	1	0.70mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,849	$1.25	73d	1	0.72mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,649	$1.11	38d	1	0.72mi
318 Mahogany Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	73d	1	0.72mi
427 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,800	$1.21	53d	1	0.76mi
5836 Crystal Water Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,799	$1.21	42d	1	0.77mi
510 Olmstead Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,795	$1.42	3d	1	0.78mi
116 Boxberry Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1377	$1,750	$1.27	17d	1	0.78mi
143 Plumcove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1376	$2,150	$1.56	93d	1	0.78mi
143 Plumcove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1376	$1,500	$1.09	16d	1	0.78mi
5847 Rock Maple Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,785	$1.21	56d	1	0.80mi
5847 Rock Maple Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,785	$1.21	66d	1	0.80mi
525 Dashwood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,600	$1.29	28d	1	0.81mi
5808 Cherry Hollow Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,749	$1.39	66d	1	0.83mi
5969 Sumlin Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	19d	1	0.83mi
5840 Cherry Hollow Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$2,000	$1.35	12d	1	0.86mi
617 Dashwood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,619	$1.12	52d	1	0.87mi
702 Sunlight Loop , TX	3.0	2.0	1253	$2,000	$1.60	10d	1	0.88mi
241 Boxberry Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,725	$1.22	93d	1	0.91mi
700 Dashwood Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,950	$1.30	28d	1	0.93mi
5213 Longshadow Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,760	$1.40	4d	1	0.96mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $173,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Windrow plan)Active listing
• Construction: New construction (Plan: Windrow)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,033 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Windrow)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $158,999 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $158,999 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $158,999 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $158,999 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $158,999 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $158,999 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $158,999 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $158,999 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $158,999 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $158,999 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $158,999 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $158,999 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $158,999 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $158,999 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $158,999 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $158,999 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $158,999 Active 100 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $158,999 Active 99 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $158,999 Active 98 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $158,999 Active 97 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $158,999 Active 96 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $158,999 Active 95 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $158,999 Active 94 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $158,999 Active 93 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $158,999 Active 92 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $158,999 Active 90 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $158,999 Active 89 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $158,999 Active 88 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $158,999 Active 87 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $158,999 Active 86 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $158,999 Active 85 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $158,999 Active 84 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $158,999 Active 83 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $158,999 Active 82 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $158,999 Active 81 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $158,999 Active 80 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $158,999 Active 79 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $158,999 Active 77 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $158,999 Active 75 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $158,999 Active 74 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $173,999 Active 71 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $173,999 Active 70 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $173,999 Active 69 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $173,999 Active 68 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $173,999 Active 66 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $173,999 Active 65 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $173,999 Active 62 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $173,999 Active 61 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $173,999 Active 60 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $173,999 Active 57 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,862
• − Property taxes: −$3,712
• − Insurance: −$1,237
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,874
• − Management: −$1,874
• − Depreciation: −$7,199
• Taxable loss: −$6,336
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,521
• After-tax cash flow: $-499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,165–$15,495 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a good exterior, interior, and landscaping. It has a good foundation and structure, and no visible repairs or maintenance are needed. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for significant value increases through cosmetic updates and interior improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more inviting and appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and can attract more renters. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harper El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Clark Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Princeton H S C- TX #437/1,632 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $173,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Windrow plan)Active listing
• Construction: New construction (Plan: Windrow)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,033 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Windrow)