2300 W County Road 38e #171 · Fort Collins, CO 80526

$69,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 81 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $69k · at est. ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-kept 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the desirable Timber Ridge South community. This home offers a bright, open layout with a comfortable living area, an efficient kitchen, ideal for flexible living arrangements. Enjoy your own outdoor space for relaxing or gardening, plus a convenient storage shed and off-street parking. Timber Ridge South provides access to community amenities including a pool, clubhouse, playground, and green spaces, all in a well-maintained setting close to Horsetooth Reservoir, trails, shopping, and dining. This property offers an affordable opportunity to live on the west side of Fort Collins with great amenities and a welcoming community feel.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community amenities
• Storage shed

Tags

• OUTDOOR SPACE
• STORAGE SHED
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No designated parking features listed
• Utilities: Xcel gas service; Republic Service trash; Water meter installed; No water rights
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Mobile home
• Construction: Composition roof; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Deck; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Window coverings; Fire alarm
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.3% vs local median 2.6% in Fort Collins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#11 in CO, #1,750 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Olander Elementary School (math 34% / reading 62%, grade D, #232 of 966 statewide, top 25%, 343 students, 40% FRL); Rocky Mountain High School (math 46% / reading 69%, grade C, #68 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 2,069 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,859 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.82%
• DSCR: 4.02
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $68,992
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2300 W County Road 38e #163	0.00mi	3/2.0	938 (+5%)	11mo	$87,500	$93	83
2300 W County Road 38 Rd E #111	0.00mi	3/2.0	924 (+3%)	23mo	$69,000	$75	75
2300 W County Road 38 E #252	0.00mi	3/1.0	840 (-6%)	15mo	$65,000	$77	73
2300 W County Road 38e #115	0.00mi	2/1.5 (-1)	960 (+7%)	15mo	$64,000	$67	69
3717 S Taft Hill Rd #59	0.46mi	3/2.0	960 (+7%)	23mo	$85,000	$89	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $55,435
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $126,173
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80526

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,915 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $362/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $1,092

Break-even live

Break-even rent $533

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4041 Goodell Ln Unit 8 Fort Collins, CO	2.0	1.0	794	$1,400	$1.76	13d	1	0.46mi
1601 W Swallow Rd Fort Collins, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	678	$1,900	$2.80	13d	2	1.29mi
3425 S Shields St Fort Collins, CO	2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$2,174	$2.81	13d	17	1.43mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $69,000 Pending 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $69,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $69,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $69,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $69,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-03-30
   price $69,000
10. 2026-03-18
    listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $362 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $380 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$17/yr (+$1/mo · 4.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$362
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,838
• − Management: −$1,838
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $12,721
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,053
• After-tax cash flow: $10,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poudre School District R-1
• NCES district ID: 0803990
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,281
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2610
• State rank: #10 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fort Collins

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #1750

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment B Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Larimer County · 338,255 people
• City population: 202,303
• Metro: Fort Collins, CO
• Population (ZIP): 44,326
• Household income: $88,686
• Rent vs Own: 43.0% rent · 57.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2386.0

Population outlook (Larimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,361 people
• By 2030: 457,762 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 542,310 · +30.6%
• By 2050: 627,048 · +51.0%
• By 2075: 833,722 · +100.7%
• By 2100: 952,590 · +129.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Larimer

• 2024 margin: D (+17.6) · D 57.4% · R 39.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+15.4 2016: D+4.9 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -437.47%
• Current HPI: 280.4791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.46%
• Metro: Fort Collins, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-1.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $69,000 IRES
• 2026-03-18 Listed $70,000 IRES

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $362 · +141.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.