3956 Santa Sophia Rd · Las Cruces, NM 88012

$309,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,786 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 2022 5,227 sqft lot $174/sqft · 22% below area Est $390k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nearly New beautiful 4 Bedroom, 3 Full Baths. Shows very little wear and the yard is completely landscaped for low maintenance. This house gives you space for everything at a reasonable price.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-401 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (34.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $203,720 (34.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.55%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,573
• List price: $309,900
• Delta: -20.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-74,760
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-93,778
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,037 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,078/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,545

Max offer price $238,992

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-226	-5% $-314	+0% $-401	+5% $-489	+10% $-577
Rent	-10% $-562	-5% $-482	+0% $-401	+5% $-321	+10% $-240
Rate	-1.0pp $-245	-0.5pp $-323	base $-401	+0.5pp $-482	+1.0pp $-563

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3833 Ranchers Rd Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	44d	1	0.36mi
7013 Silver Spur St Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.5	2330	$2,200	$0.94	21d	1	0.43mi
7516 Sierra de Oro Pl Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.0	1549	$1,895	$1.22	14d	1	0.57mi
3575 Sierra del Sol Ave Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	44d	1	0.64mi
7559 Vista de Oeste Pl Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1234	$2,000	$1.62	44d	1	0.74mi
3652 Springhaven Loop Las Cruces, NM	4.0	3.0	2126	$2,500	$1.18	14d	1	0.80mi
7353 Vista de Sobre Dr Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,895	$1.26	44d	1	0.91mi
4942 Sherwood Rd Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,625	$1.18	14d	1	0.99mi
5014 Kenner Way Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,825	$1.10	14d	1	1.06mi
5042 Kenner Way Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.5	2400	$1,800	$0.75	45d	1	1.10mi
3704 Chromite Ct Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,500	$1.09	44d	1	1.16mi
3860 Las Colinas Dr Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,600	$1.03	21d	1	1.16mi
5015 Emerald St Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,450	$1.02	44d	1	1.18mi
3862 Van Ess Ct Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,545	$1.04	14d	1	1.28mi
3670 Gem St Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,700	$1.18	44d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,900 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,900 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,900 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,900 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $309,900 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,900 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $309,900 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,900 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,900 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $309,900 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,900 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,900 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $309,900 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $309,900 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Nearly New beautiful 4 Bedroom, 3 Full Baths. Shows very little wear and the yard is completely landscaped for low maintenance. This house gives you space for everything at a reasonable price.

16. 2026-02-28
    historical $1,950
17. 2026-02-26
    listed $329,900 Active 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Nearly New beautiful 4 Bedroom, 3 Full Baths. Shows very little wear and the yard is completely landscaped for low maintenance. This house gives you space for everything at a reasonable price.

18. 2026-02-20
    price $1,950
19. 2025-12-06
    listed $2,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,078 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,078 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$3,078
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,956
• − Management: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$10,467
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,512
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+14657.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $309,900 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-28 Rental Removed $1,950 BUILDIUM
• 2026-02-26 Listed $329,900 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $1,950 BUILDIUM
• 2025-12-06 Listed for Rent $2,100 BUILDIUM

Property tax history

+88.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,078 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.