62 Moriches Dr · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$389,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1932 7,405 sqft lot Est $426k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 Bedroom Home Offers A Spacious Living Room, Large Master Bedroom, Formal Dining Room, Attached Garage And Low Taxes. Well Maintained But Needs Interior Updating - Great Starter Or Investment!, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Low property taxes
• Generous yard space

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• GENEROUS YARD SPACE
• LOW PROPERTY TAXES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-572 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Mastic Beach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John S Hobart Elementary School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,274 of 2,108 statewide, top 61%, 798 students, 58% FRL); William Floyd Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,053 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; list at $389k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,928 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.23%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $425,955
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
62 Moriches Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,095 (0%)	1mo	$360,000	$329	99
77 Diana Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+0%)	4mo	$400,000	$364	84
231 Elm Rd W	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+0%)	2mo	$477,000	$434	82
8 Astoria Rd	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,116 (+2%)	5mo	$434,600	$389	76
20 Bogota Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,088 (-1%)	3mo	$460,000	$423	71
159 Forest Rd E	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,104 (+1%)	2mo	$399,000	$361	71
31 Stanley Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (-0%)	0mo	$460,000	$421	66
40 Fairview Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,050 (-4%)	2mo	$400,000	$381	60
40 Pinewood Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,050 (-4%)	5mo	$365,000	$348	52
17 Bellport Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,224 (+12%)	4mo	$465,000	$380	52
33 Sherwood Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,130 (+3%)	5mo	$440,000	$389	51
27 Pinewood Dr	0.69mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,250 (+14%)	1mo	$598,000	$478	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $175,670
• Equity at exit: $350,442

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $546,475
• Equity at exit: $755,741

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,297/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $-572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,823

Max offer price $287,928

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Hackensack Rd Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	792	$3,150	$3.98	17d	1	0.47mi
67 Saint George Dr Shirley, NY	2.0	1.0	714	$2,750	$3.85	44d	1	1.20mi
149 Washington Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$3,400	$2.95	1d	1	1.39mi
5 Cedar Rd E Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	740	$2,900	$3.92	1d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $389,000 Active
3. 2020-04-02
   soldstatus $163,770
4. 2020-01-28
   soldstatus $159,000 Closed 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   This 2 Bedroom Home Offers A Spacious Living Room, Large Master Bedroom, Formal Dining Room, Attached Garage And Low Taxes. Well Maintained But Needs Interior Updating - Great Starter Or Investment!, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

5. 2019-09-20
   status Under Contract 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   This 2 Bedroom Home Offers A Spacious Living Room, Large Master Bedroom, Formal Dining Room, Attached Garage And Low Taxes. Well Maintained But Needs Interior Updating - Great Starter Or Investment!, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

6. 2019-09-20
   price $165,000 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   This 2 Bedroom Home Offers A Spacious Living Room, Large Master Bedroom, Formal Dining Room, Attached Garage And Low Taxes. Well Maintained But Needs Interior Updating - Great Starter Or Investment!, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

7. 2019-08-31
   listed $159,000 New 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   This 2 Bedroom Home Offers A Spacious Living Room, Large Master Bedroom, Formal Dining Room, Attached Garage And Low Taxes. Well Maintained But Needs Interior Updating - Great Starter Or Investment!, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,297 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,435 · $453/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,139/yr (+$95/mo · 26.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$4,297
• − Insurance: −$7,470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,975
• − Management: −$2,975
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$13,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,272
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+144.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $389,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $163,770 Public Records
• 2020-01-28 Sold (MLS) $159,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-20 Price Changed $165,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-31 Listed $159,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+21.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,297 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.