Pinehollow Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$255,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,607 sqft · SingleFamily · 617 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 617 days

Tags

• NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

🏗️ New construction. The $255,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $279,505.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 617 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $205,316 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 617 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,505
• List price: $255,990
• Delta: -8.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 Bandit Cove Ct	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,676 (+4%)	4mo	$277,990	$166	70
706 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,607 (0%)	0mo	$258,990	$161	69
928 Gentle Moss Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-4%)	1mo	$239,000	$154	63
574 Bluebell Maiden Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (+1%)	1mo	$269,990	$167	60
716 Autumn Cherry Trl	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (-8%)	2mo	$255,000	$173	57
827 Deerhurst Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,772 (+10%)	3mo	$219,900	$124	56
309 Cumberland Forest Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,788 (+11%)	1mo	$265,000	$148	55
1047 Brighton Orchards Ln	0.46mi	4/2.5	1,826 (+14%)	2mo	$250,000	$137	52
715 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-12%)	1mo	$240,990	$170	42
719 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-12%)	1mo	$245,990	$175	41
486 Southern Magnolia Way	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-12%)	3mo	$243,990	$172	39
490 Southern Magnolia Way	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-12%)	3mo	$244,990	$174	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $127,146
• Equity at exit: $251,801

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $380,206
• Equity at exit: $543,018

Cash invested: $78,262 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,466
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,193/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,445

Max offer price $234,705

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-116	-5% $-213	+0% $-310	+5% $-406	+10% $-503
Rent	-10% $-472	-5% $-391	+0% $-310	+5% $-229	+10% $-147
Rate	-1.0pp $-169	-0.5pp $-239	base $-310	+0.5pp $-382	+1.0pp $-456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,876
• Closing costs: $8,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 Alder Laurels Cv Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2229	$2,036	$0.91	22d	1	0.43mi
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	22d	1	0.46mi
764 Autumn Cherry Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2196	$1,665	$0.76	44d	1	0.51mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	25d	1	0.60mi
273 Douglas Hills Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1922	$1,895	$0.99	44d	1	0.61mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	5d	1	0.62mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	44d	1	0.71mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	25d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,990 Active 617 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,990 Active 616 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,990 Active 615 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,990 Active 614 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,990 Active 612 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,990 Active 608 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,990 Active 607 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,990 Active 606 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $255,990 Active 603 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,990 Active 602 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,990 Active 601 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,990 Active 600 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,990 Active 599 DOM
14. 2024-10-09
    listed $255,990 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,657
• − Property taxes: −$4,193
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − Depreciation: −$8,131
• Taxable loss: −$8,682
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,084
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-10-09 Listed $255,990 Zillow