58 Hillcrest Dr · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$399,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 544 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1950 3,485 sqft lot $735/sqft · 200% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NESTLED ON LONG ISLANDS NORTH SHORE BLUFF~ THIS LITTLE SLICE OF HEAVEN OFFERS THE TRANQUIL SOUND OF THE WATER WASHING ASHORE, UNOBSTRUCTED BREATHTAKING WATER-VIEWS AND BEACH VIEWS, This home was renovated in 2014 and additional Renovations done including Windows, & Sliders Added in 2023 to Accentuate THE WATERVIEWS. Updated Eat In kitchen W/White Cabinetry, Granite Counters, Subway Tile Back Splash, Updated Bathroom accented with Shiplap, Engineered Wide plank White Oak Floors, Vaulted Rustic Beamed Ceilings for the authentic cottage feel, Mini Split for Heat & air, Double SLIDERS to entertainers Deck Also w/Wide Plank Boards, Stackable washer/Dryer, New Stove, New White Storage Cabinetry, 2 Sofas, & Captains Bed with Storage, Exterior Painted 2021 in a Soothing Blue Tone, Interior Freshly Painted 2024, Additional Tiered Deck Off Side for Sunbathing, Rose Bushes & Perennial Plantings offer charm & make it feel like home. Furnished & Ready to Use. Only 1 Hour & 15 Minutes to NYC. Jitney Bus is only 8 Minute Drive from Community. Community is Seasonal open April 15-October 15. Land is Leased at approximately $12,400 annually. Short term rentals Prohibited. Was two separate bedrooms but currently walls down and set up as Open Concept. Could be put back up., Additional information: Appearance:Mint

Key facts

• Renovated in 2014
• Granite counters
• Updated bathroom

Tags

• RENOVATED IN 2014
• WINDOWS ADDED IN 2023
• UPDATED EAT IN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• SUBWAY TILE BACK SPLASH
• UPDATED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($85k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $376k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.6% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $375,990 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.02%
• DSCR: 4.38
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,523
• List price: $399,990
• Delta: 199.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28 Hillcrest Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0	550 (+1%)	2mo	$155,000	$282	93
47 Woodcliff Trl	0.10mi	2/1.0	525 (-4%)	2mo	$120,000	$229	87
58 Hillcrest Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	544 (0%)	23mo	$400,000	$735	81
9 Eastway Path	0.22mi	2/1.0	500 (-8%)	2mo	$125,000	$250	75
11 S Surfway	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	500 (-8%)	14mo	$110,000	$220	64
11 Cottage Rd	0.22mi	2/1.0	624 (+15%)	16mo	$123,000	$197	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $505,545
• Equity at exit: $185,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.1%
• Equity multiple: 11.35×
• Total profit: $1,159,602
• Equity at exit: $290,883

Cash invested: $111,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,448/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $7,095

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,019

Max offer price $399,990

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,322	-5% $7,208	+0% $7,095	+5% $6,982	+10% $6,869
Rent	-10% $6,147	-5% $6,621	+0% $7,095	+5% $7,569	+10% $8,043
Rate	-1.0pp $7,297	-0.5pp $7,197	base $7,095	+0.5pp $6,991	+1.0pp $6,886

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,998
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Cliff Way Calverton, NY	2.0	1.0	672	$12,000	$17.86	25d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-03-02
   listed $399,990 Active 1343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1343 chars)

   NESTLED ON LONG ISLANDS NORTH SHORE BLUFF~ THIS LITTLE SLICE OF HEAVEN OFFERS THE TRANQUIL SOUND OF THE WATER WASHING ASHORE, UNOBSTRUCTED BREATHTAKING WATER-VIEWS AND BEACH VIEWS, This home was renovated in 2014 and additional Renovations done including Windows, & Sliders Added in 2023 to Accentuate THE WATERVIEWS. Updated Eat In kitchen W/White Cabinetry, Granite Counters, Subway Tile Back Splash, Updated Bathroom accented with Shiplap, Engineered Wide plank White Oak Floors, Vaulted Rustic Beamed Ceilings for the authentic cottage feel, Mini Split for Heat & air, Double SLIDERS to entertainers Deck Also w/Wide Plank Boards, Stackable washer/Dryer, New Stove, New White Storage Cabinetry, 2 Sofas, & Captains Bed with Storage, Exterior Painted 2021 in a Soothing Blue Tone, Interior Freshly Painted 2024, Additional Tiered Deck Off Side for Sunbathing, Rose Bushes & Perennial Plantings offer charm & make it feel like home. Furnished & Ready to Use. Only 1 Hour & 15 Minutes to NYC. Jitney Bus is only 8 Minute Drive from Community. Community is Seasonal open April 15-October 15. Land is Leased at approximately $12,400 annually. Short term rentals Prohibited. Was two separate bedrooms but currently walls down and set up as Open Concept. Could be put back up., Additional information: Appearance:Mint

2. 2025-11-05
   historical
3. 2025-07-28
   price $399,990
4. 2025-07-14
   listed $424,990 Active
5. 2024-07-11
   soldstatus $400,000 Closed
6. 2024-06-06
   listed $399,990 Active
7. 2024-06-06
   historical $399,990
8. 2022-10-11
   soldstatus $260,000 Closed
9. 2022-09-04
   listed $274,990 Active
10. 2013-10-16
    soldstatus $91,000
11. 2013-10-16
    soldstatus $91,000 Closed
12. 2013-07-30
    price $85,000 Price Change
13. 2013-05-24
    listed $99,500 New
14. 2013-05-23
    listed $85,000
15. 2013-02-07
    historical
16. 2012-08-07
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,448 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,104 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,656/yr (+$221/mo · 183.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$1,448
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,520
• − Management: −$11,520
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable income: $83,470
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20,033
• After-tax cash flow: $65,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• City population: 6,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+300.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $399,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $399,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Listed $424,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-11 Sold (MLS) $400,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-06 Listed $399,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-06 Coming Soon $399,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-11 Sold (MLS) $260,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-04 Listed $274,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-16 Sold (MLS) $91,000 MLSLI
• 2013-10-16 Sold (MLS) $91,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-30 Price Changed $85,000 MLSLI
• 2013-05-24 Listed $99,500 MLSLI
• 2013-05-23 Listed $85,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-07 Listed $99,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,448 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.