735 Drexel Blvd · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$145,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,333 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1951 6,534 sqft lot Est $180k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home! First home buyers take note! Affordable living! Within last 5-6 years - updated exterior - Inclusive of siding, roof (including the flat roof), chimney rebuilt, gutters, downspouts! Large 20 x 20 deck and a yard firepit for backyard entertaining. 2 Car tandem garage, one electric drive opens front door, rear garage door to backyard is manual raise. Eat-in Kitchen w/ updated cabinets including pantry cupboard and vinyl replacement windows. 2 Bedrooms main floor with full bath, 2 bedrooms up with knotty pine walls, 2 built-in dressers, good closet and storage space. Lower level approximately 50% finished with rec room, bar refrigerator stays. Also lower level is the laundry area

Key facts

• Large deck
• Yard firepit
• Updated cabinets

Tags

• UPDATED EXTERIOR
• LARGE DECK
• YARD FIREPIT
• UPDATED CABINETS
• VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• REC ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Annual tax information available

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Residential house
• Construction: Below-grade finished area included
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; 0.15-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($274/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.9% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Windsor Elem School (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,224 of 2,056 statewide, top 60%, 365 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $145k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,500 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.68%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,955
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
744 Drexel Blvd	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,400 (+5%)	4mo	$170,000	$121	85
632 Drexel Blvd	0.11mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,295 (-3%)	8mo	$175,000	$135	77
810 Pettit Ct	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,312 (-2%)	5mo	$180,000	$137	68
630 Windsor Rd	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,245 (-7%)	7mo	$149,000	$120	59
7643 Rogers St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,281 (-4%)	2mo	$195,815	$153	58
6320 Walker Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,245 (-7%)	8mo	$170,000	$137	49
825 Harlem Rd	0.68mi	4/1.0	1,504 (+13%)	2mo	$185,000	$123	43
6325 Browns Pkwy	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,509 (+13%)	1mo	$203,500	$135	43
1321 Northfield Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,500 (+12%)	4mo	$180,000	$120	42
216 Superior Ave	0.71mi	4/1.0	1,164 (-13%)	4mo	$115,000	$99	40
7637 Rogers St	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,143 (-14%)	2mo	$205,000	$179	39
6320 John St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (+13%)	6mo	$210,000	$140	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-21,998
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-17,105
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,345 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,627/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,316

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3701 Trilling Ave Unit 3701-104 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	13d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $145,000 Active
3. 2000-12-21
   soldstatus $76,000
4. 1996-05-03
   soldstatus $60,500
5. 1996-05-03
   soldstatus $60,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,627 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,959 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: +$332/yr (+$28/mo · 12.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,627
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,291
• − Management: −$1,291
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$512
• After-tax cash flow: $786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+139.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-04-30 Listed $145,000 NWIAR
• 2000-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 1996-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
• 1996-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,627 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.