308 Cowboy Rd · Jesup, GA 31545

$205,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured · 85 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 1.87 ac lot $108/sqft · at area comps Est $203k · at est. ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your perfect first home—situated on 1.87 acres of peaceful land, giving you the space and freedom you've been looking for! Step inside to an open-concept layout that makes everyday living feel easy and connected. The spacious kitchen features an island and breakfast bar, perfect for morning coffee, quick meals, or hosting friends and family. A split floor plan offers privacy where it matters most, while the generously sized bedrooms and large closets give you plenty of room to grow. With two versatile living spaces, you'll have flexibility for a cozy living room, home office, playroom, or whatever fits your lifestyle. We love the no carpet throughout, making maintenance simple and stress-free. Plus, the walk-in laundry/utility room adds extra convenience and storage. Outside, enjoy the space to create your own vision from gardening, entertaining, or just relaxing on your land. A storage shed is included, giving you even more room for tools, hobbies, or outdoor gear. Schedule a tour today!

Key facts

• 1.87 acre lot
• Built 2024
• Listed 84 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-214/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Jesup — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#112 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne County (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #68 of 174 in GA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 163 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,078 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,647
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: 1.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 Cowboy Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,836 (-4%)	15mo	$203,000	$111	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-34,325
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-31,241
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31545

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,771 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $202,425

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $205,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $205,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-03-26
    listed $205,000 Active 1020-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1020 chars)

    Welcome to your perfect first home—situated on 1.87 acres of peaceful land, giving you the space and freedom you've been looking for! Step inside to an open-concept layout that makes everyday living feel easy and connected. The spacious kitchen features an island and breakfast bar, perfect for morning coffee, quick meals, or hosting friends and family. A split floor plan offers privacy where it matters most, while the generously sized bedrooms and large closets give you plenty of room to grow. With two versatile living spaces, you'll have flexibility for a cozy living room, home office, playroom, or whatever fits your lifestyle. We love the no carpet throughout, making maintenance simple and stress-free. Plus, the walk-in laundry/utility room adds extra convenience and storage. Outside, enjoy the space to create your own vision from gardening, entertaining, or just relaxing on your land. A storage shed is included, giving you even more room for tools, hobbies, or outdoor gear. Schedule a tour today!

18. 2025-08-25
    price $209,900
19. 2025-04-23
    price $229,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,700
• − Management: −$1,700
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$887
• After-tax cash flow: $674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good foundation, structure, and systems, and is ready for a cosmetic rehab to enhance its curb appeal and add value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County
• NCES district ID: 1305550
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,918
• Composite: 29.3/100
• National rank: #6554
• State rank: #68 of 174 in GA

Livability — Jesup

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #8442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,050
• Population (ZIP): 16,057

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,891 people
• By 2030: 28,388 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 27,396 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 26,135 · -9.5%
• By 2075: 23,253 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 19,481 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.8) · D 20.0% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -59.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.8 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+58.9 2012: R+48.3 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.10%
• Current HPI: 249.3504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $205,000 HABR
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $209,900 HABR
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $229,900 HABR